[russellw]

Time for a fresh look at the USA where there have been some significant changes in terms of the worst performing States.

For raw case numbers, California (+1) takes over the top spot ahead of Florida (+1) and Texas (+1) while New York (-3) drops to 4th and Georgia (+2) climbs to 5th. The rest of the worst 10 are Illinois (-), Arizona (+1), New Jersey (-3), North Carolina (+2) and Louisiana (+2). Remember that pluses are not a good thing as it moves you higher up the ladder.

Three of those (Florida, Alabama and Texas) along with S Carolina, Arkansas, Utah & W Virginia were the only states to have worsened CMRs - possibly as ICU capacity gets stretched.

Speaking of CMR, the national average stands at 3.11% with Connecticut (8.75) the worst followed by New Jersey (8.28), New York (7.22), Massachusetts (7.15) and Michigan (6.45) with 13 other states above the national average. On the plus side, 43 states are below 1% CMR with Alaska (0.66) leading the way.

The national average for cases per 100k of population is 1681.75 with Louisiana (2969) the worst followed by Arizona (2622), Florida (2607), Mississippi (2413) and New York (2343). At the other end of the scale are Vermont (241), Maine (309), W Virginia (481), Oregon (540) and Kentucky (873).

The national average for deaths per 100k is 52.3 with New jersey (178) the worst followed by New York (169), Massachusetts (126), Connecticut (124) and Rhode Island (96). The best of the mainland states are Wyoming (5.23), Idaho (6.84), Montana (7.55), W Virginia (9.0) and Oregon (9.02).

Florida (10.3% of cases and 6.6% of the population), Texas (10.06/8.9) and New York (8.2/5.9) along with several other states to a lesser extent are over-represented in terms of case number compared to population.

Surprisingly, despite being the retirement home of America, Florida is not over-represented in terms of deaths per 100k of population but New York is with 19% of the deaths and only 5.9% of the population as are Illinois (9.2/2.7), Massachusetts (5.1/2.1), Connecticut (2.6/1.08) and Louisiana (2.6/1.4).

Looking at the various trend graphs, some states are getting (or starting to get) a good handle on it.

New York had been on a steep downward trend since peaking at almost 11k cases on April 26th but that has flattened off since early June to now sit between 6-900 cases per day. Still too many but way better than it was.

New Jersey was seeing ~4k cases a day in April but that's been in the 3-500 bracket since early July.

Some aren't.

California only reached a peak a few days ago and is still recording more than 10k cases per day. Ohio has been getting steadily worse since early June. Virginia and Maryland only peaked 10 days ago in what looks to be a second wave. Missouri has done the same but it's still the first wave. Most States are showing a similar shaped curve with an early peak, slight drop and then a steady climb which explains why the country as a whole has just continued to climb in case numbers as we saw yesterday.