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Old 21-02-2020, 12:37 PM   #67
Sprintey
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Join Date: Sep 2014
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Default Re: Coronavirus Closes 5 Hyundai Factories.

Mr XXXOOO it's a fair question. Ebola was very contagious but had a very high death rate so this limits its spread. Villages in equatorial Africa are a longer distance from internation air flight hubs and routes as well.
COVID-19 has a really high infection rate (R0 of 6.7 in one paper) but - crucially - it has a dormant period before symptoms where you still may be infectious, of 14 days (latest info out of China advises 24 days possible, one documented case had onset of symptoms 93 days after first exposure caring for a relative who was one of the first infected!)
So there's the possibility of it spreading far before anyone knows, as carriers may not show symptoms, even a fever. You can imagine what can happen in our connected world with this feature.
Indian researchers put out then pulled a paper suggesting RNA similar to HIV in it - bats the cause or something else?
Mortality - 2.2% officially, 1/3 of infected need high end medical care. The elderly and those with previous conditions more at risk.

Overnight it seems to be taking off in South Korea and Japan. Hong Kong and Singapore have cases near 100 now, including infections beyond points of contact in Wuhan - this classifies as Pandemic I believe, according to WHO rules. We are still flying in from Singapore, HK, Narita.
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