[russellw]

I said a couple of weeks back that the roughly 4K new cases in late June and the first half of July would translate to something like 40 deaths and we've had 113 in the ~3 weeks since 14th of July (not counting today) after only having 108 in the preceding 3.5 months.

Nationally, we've had more than 10k cases (from a total of 18k) since June 24th and at the current CMR that should translate to 121 deaths but it looks like it might well be a bit higher unfortunately although we won't be sure until we stop getting new cases and an additional 14 days elapse.

What we can guesstimate is that the 3,568 new cases last week will likely mean another 42 deaths are yet to come.