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Originally Posted by roddy1960
How do our Victorian forum members see the overall handling of the pandemic in your State , especially with Daniel Andrews and his team in mind given what's happening at the minute .
It's critically important for the whole country (obviously) that this is handled really well for all sorts of reasons but on the economic front ABC radio reported yesterday that about 25% of our national economy involves our second most populous State .
If that is actually correct , the sooner Victoria's situation improves again the better for us all .
One thing is for sure . How Victoria handles this second wave will be watched and learned from nation wide because an outbreak could happen anywhere in our country . We're a long way from being Covid safe yet that's for certain .
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Initial response was good - nobody knew just how the virus would behave, and so the national lockdown was successful. Quarantine was where the problems start, mismanaged in such a way as to create a vector of community transmission. It's arguable there was a very low level of community transmission anyway, but this breach got big, quick.
They are faced with a services economy that requires a lot of face to face transactions, and an economic situation where a very high cost of living basis exists with a lot of (relatively) lowly paid work. ($23/hr might sound awesome in Nepal...) So you get people immigrating and living 10 to a house. This same situation bit Singapore in the ****. So from guards to families to fast food drivers to fast food restaurants with notable outbreaks in abattoirs and meat works. Then it starts coming to schools, which suggests community transmission.
This was bubbling away while restrictions were being eased. It was party time and freedom for Melbourne, they'd got through it, time to have that holiday regionally, weekend trips away. All the while it bubbled away. Then the cases started accelerating, just before school holidays. NSW did not shut the border. School hols had begun in the regions when Melbourne went back into Stage 3. I think what they were trying to do was to keep a lid on it while keeping as much of the economy running as possible. This might have been a false hope, as infections started becoming spread through the workplace. It has become apparent that tougher measures are needed to slow it down quicker, so maybe that's a change in management strategy. The most successful countries dealing with it have locked down hard and early. Pain now, go for a new normal later. The least successful have been muddled in their response, like the UK. I think when they look at how Vic tried to balance both economy and virus, questions might be raised about being behind the speed of spread, confused messaging, and a culture of disobeying.
Anyway, we are here now in very similar conditions to the first national lockdown - even in regions. The virus is more widespread, and community transmission is higher than before, when it was negligible. Getting over 760 cases with no known trace led to the urgent Stage 4 Melbourne lockdown. R0 was tending toward one during Stage 3, but perhaps something shifted? Widespread disobeyance (and idiot stories) couldn't have helped. If the Stage 4 lockdown works like the first national lockdown, then rates will begin to fall and probably fast. We can hope.
The Victoria post-corona will be different to the one before. Many businesses will be in real trouble or close. There will probably be an exodus to the regions, like seen in other nations like USA - those who can afford it. The culture and economy might change, hopefully a return to making things rather than a services economy. The virus will lead to new cautions and needs. We might think we're in trouble now, but there's 5 million+ industrious people here, I reckon the bounce back might surprise everyone - just with new businesses and opportunities.
My 2c