north Korea at flash point ?

[mik]

http://www.news.com.au/world-news/un...-1226617936354

Just read the article, towards the bottom of the the page it says , Australia is at risk, i was already thinking that, very very little mentioned from our pollies about contingency plans should something happen.
this bloke kim jong un, he`s hard to read, just don`t know what he`s going to do next, my thought is he may well just let South Korea and US sweat for sometime and then he might do something dumb when they are not expecting it (or when he thinks the are`nt expecting it,hopefully not), i would`nt like to play poker with this fellow.

[nstg8a]

The us has so much hardware round there I'd be surprised if a missile got more than a few hundred Kay's past the border.

They may have a massive army but they're tech is a long way behind the yanks.

If they launch anything seriously then the Iraq 'shock and awe' campaign will look like fireworks in comparison.
Only spoiler is if china decides to support North Korea on the sly...

[Nikked]

...meanwhile, in the US...

[flappist]

As this thread is topical I will let it run but if it goes silly it will go on holidays along with those responsible.

dong ma?

[Cobramad]

Lets hope its all the usual talk and bluster, if not, things may certainly get bad very quickly.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by Cobramad

Lets hope its all the usual talk and bluster, if not, things may certainly get bad very quickly.

Agree....

We don't have as much to worry about as the South Koreans. Seoul is very close to the 38th Parallel / DMZ and they will bear the brunt of any attack should it happen....

The North Korean agenda is built on propaganda and chest beating... Lets hope it stays exactly that way.

The North / South border is heavily monitored by a combined South Korean / US contingency. If anything were to happen the response would be swift.

[nstg8a]

I almost think there might be a few countries hoping that nk does launch something, just to force the USA to shoot it down, been a while since the USA has had anything substantial to shoot down.
I'd say military leaders everywhere will be curious about just how capable/possible it really is to shoot down ballistic missiles.

[Nikked]

If anything, it can see it being the next "cold war"...

[Cobramad]

Mate, its cold and hungry enough for the majority of the NK population who without continued food aid, would be starving, or at least, even hungrier than they already are.

[nstg8a]

Yeah I read somewhere that the us has 28000 troops stationed there permanently, willing to bet that number is substantially higher at the moment.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by nstg8a

Yeah I read somewhere that the us has 28000 troops stationed there permanently, willing to bet that number is substantially higher at the moment.

I have been to one of their bases. Go to certain areas in Seoul and you will hear more American accents than Korean.

The best DMZ tour is run with the help of the US Army. It is pretty full on when you go to the border... very strict rules about conduct and even dress... and the North are watching you from their watch towers as you are watching them... that, and the tunnels the North dug when trying to invade are very eerie...

[Cobramad]

I feel the greatest threat to regional stability is a conventional war, NK has a massive standing army. For the first time in years, the SK are saying they are prepared to respond to any NK action. This will certainly hear things up.

[2011G6E]

I found it interesting that after NK's last "nuclear test" surrounding countries were very interested in testing the air for traces gases that are always released after an atomic explosion, so that they can examine them and work out yield, what the bomb was made from, and what sort of standard it was.

This time they found...none. Not any. Interesting.

Another interesting fact is that atomic weapon yield is measured in tons of TNT...1 kiloton equals a thousand tons of TNT, 1 megaton equals a million tonnes, etc.
Did you know if you do as the Americans did back before they actually started real atomic testing, and pile up a thousand tons of TNT and blow it up, you get almost exactly the same explosion as a one kiloton nuke?

Except there wont be any radioactive trace gases released...as with a real nuke blast...


There are suspicions that North Korea may not even be able to actually build a proper nuke, and merely blew up huge amounts of conventional explosive underground and said to the world proudly "look at my nukes!", in an effort to frighten everyone and look better than they actually are...

[nstg8a]

Originally Posted by 2011G6E

I found it interesting that after NK's last "nuclear test" surrounding countries were very interested in testing the air for traces gases that are always released after an atomic explosion, so that they can examine them and work out yield, what the bomb was made from, and what sort of standard it was.

This time they found...none. Not any. Interesting.

Another interesting fact is that atomic weapon yield is measured in tons of TNT...1 kiloton equals a thousand tons of TNT, 1 megaton equals a million tonnes, etc.
Did you know if you do as the Americans did back before they actually started real atomic testing, and pile up a thousand tons of TNT and blow it up, you get almost exactly the same explosion as a one kiloton nuke?

Except there wont be any radioactive trace gases released...as with a real nuke blast...


There are suspicions that North Korea may not even be able to actually build a proper nuke, and merely blew up huge amounts of conventional explosive underground and said to the world proudly "look at my nukes!", in an effort to frighten everyone and look better than they actually are...

I've read a few opinion pieces that say basically the same thing, that the nk military capability is being vastly over stated, some say by the North Koreans themselves, some by the western media and military 'experts'

Other than a massive standing army they seem to have a pretty basic style of military, relying on tech like scud missiles etc. scuds didn't work so well for saddam. All of their longer range stuff is very much untested.
Even their showpiece long range missile they proudly displayed recently is widely considered to be a mock up or fake.

[mik]

Originally Posted by Cobramad

I feel the greatest threat to regional stability is a conventional war, NK has a massive standing armyactually For the first time in years, the SK are saying they are prepared to respond to any NK action. This will certainly hear things up.

I agree mate, how many times have we seen over the decades wars fought and the aftermath being basically small civil wars that go for years and years, it's anyones guess how this will end up playing out, I think any responses on the part of the US will have to be very carefully measured, even though north and south are at war I suspect the little people in the street of north and south are still very much country men if you know what I mean.

Maybe I'm wrong but I could see a bit of rebellion from the south if US annilated the north, I suspect this is what kim jong actually wants.

[usernametaken]

yep, DMZ tour is a must for any bloke visiting SK

As is Hiroshima in Japan

[Bossxr8]

How long does NK think it will last if they kick this off. The US can shoot down any missles they launch, and then holy hell will rain down on them. Their military would be effectively useless within a day or 2, except for the troops.

But what good is a whole mass of troops without any thing to back them up, probably no communications, power etc as that stuff gets targetted first.

[arronm]

Kim Jong Un has been a naughty boy. The Americans need to go in, pulls his pants down, and give him a good spanking.

[Motorbreath310]

I could imagine the NK troops storming across the DMZ/Border, making it to Seoul or any other major city, then saying "you know what? It's nice here and we have liberties and food. Screw the regime!"

Like this chick did;

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-1...lusive/4621358

[Cobramad]

Any version of logic seems to escape the NK leadership, yet I feel for their people who are, for the best part, starving. Why such a massive army when you cant feed your own populace?

[Dash_XR]

Very similar setup to Vietnam isn't it? A war where America had a superior Army, Air Force and Navy and still lost..

[nstg8a]

Originally Posted by Dash_XR

Very similar setup to Vietnam isn't it? A war where America had a superior Army, Air Force and Navy and still lost..

Except that the modern us military is a lot more superior than it was in the early 70s.

Cruise missiles and stealth bombers really do make the playing surface rather uneven.

[flappist]

Originally Posted by Dash_XR

Very similar setup to Vietnam isn't it? A war where America had a superior Army, Air Force and Navy and still lost..

It is absolutely nothing like Vietnam.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by Dash_XR

Very similar setup to Vietnam isn't it? A war where America had a superior Army, Air Force and Navy and still lost..

But the North Koreans don't have a jungle to hide in, which makes a Vietnam style scenario impossible. It would be more like Iraq the first time.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

But the North Koreans don't have a jungle to hide in, which makes a Vietnam style scenario impossible. It would be more like Iraq the first time.

The south is very mountainous, very little is area is actually lived on (hiking is almost a national passtime). The north with its lower population and larger area would be much the same.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

The south is very mountainous, very little is area is actually lived on (hiking is almost a national passtime). The north with its lower population and larger area would be much the same.

But it doesn't have the dense rainforest cover the VC used, the only real way to find them in the thick jungle was to search them out or ambush/be ambushed.

Not having that coverage makes destroying their equipment so easy for the US Air Force. Just look at Iraq, it was a turkey shoot.

[Rodge]

This is uncanny and very un-nerving, it feels like a re-run of the Cuban missle crisis.

[Cobramad]

Huge stakes, just as before!!

[Rodge]

Another worry, (apart from a conventional war which could be extremly protracted), as I see it is that if the North Koreans somehow do manage to land a single nuke strike or a chemical weapons strike, what response will that draw from the American's ? I'd speculate there's more than a few Nuclear equipped submarines sitting off the coast of North Korea right about now and each one carries a vast nuclear arsenal...

[revcore]

Kim Jong Un is on a power trip...He's talking tough to try proving himself to his people.