Diesel or Petrol

[geckoGT]

I am presently trying to decide on a car that I am going to buy and it comes in two options, either diesel or petrol. The rest of the car is the same and the diesel costs $3500 more.

Now I have worked out the fuel expenses based on todays fuel prices, annual distance of 25,000 km and expected term of ownership of 4 years. The result was that the fuel saving covers the increased cost of the diesel but does not offer any real saving in a fuel cost perspective alone. I am yet to ask about servicing costs or look into the insurance side of things but I will.

This is where my thought process gets complicated, I am now considering what the crystal ball for 4 years down the track holds for us.

As this car is a euro and diesels are gradually getting more popular, will we eventually get to a point similar to in europe where diesels are much more popular and subsequently fetch much better resale figures. Using this thought if the diesel costs $3500 more to buy but gets $2500 better resale, there is a cost saving in the diesel over the life of the car. The last figure I heard was that 80% of cars sold in europe are diesel, could australia approach those figures in the next 4 years? We probably have already seen a massive increase in the popularity of diesel cars over the last few years, could this continue as fuel prices increase?

Also with all this recent talk of a carbon tax for businesses and the cost associated with that it caused me to consider the chance of similar emissions taxes being applied to private motor vehicles by our money hungry government. The UK has an emissions tax applied to vehicles, could we see that in the next 4 years as well. The introduction of such a tax would not only alter the running costs of a car, potentially giving a diesel a clear advantage over the petrol model, but it could also have a large effect on the resale market with the diesel being much more popular and therefore getting much better resale. What do you all think of this, could we see that happen in the near future?