Diesel is dead, says Lexus chief

[Road_Warrior]

http://www.carpoint.com.au/news/2011...us-chief-24237

Tony Cramb is the chief executive of Lexus in Australia and he has a message: Time is running out for the diesel engine.

"By 2014, Euro 6 regulations come into force in Europe for all newly-launched vehicles," he explained. "And by 2016, it will be for all new vehicles, no matter when they were developed. Australia is not immune from the implications of this change.

"Euro 6 puts diesel under the spotlight, singling out NOx [nitrogen oxides] in particular... with massive financial impacts. To put the financial impact into perspective, the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association estimates that it will cost six to eight billion Euros to roll out Euro 6 -- just to the heavy vehicle industry.

"And while hybrid prices come down, due to critical mass and commercialisation, the European commission also found that consumers could expect a minimum $1500 rise in the cost of each vehicle to improve diesel from the current Euro 4 to Euro 6 standard.

"These price increases will be realised by the adoption of four-way NOx catalysts, particulate filters -- or soot traps -- along with urea injection. But all of these are downstream fixes.

"It's also worth remembering that Australia lags European countries in diesel quality, with Australia's sulphur content 500 times that of Europe's.

"It's here that we see the biggest opportunity for hybrids. As manufacturers move to Euro 6, Australia will have to follow. With lesser quality fuel and rising diesel vehicle development costs, just how far can these diesels go?"

Cramb (pictured) has a vested interest in promoting hybrid-drive vehicles to Aussies, there's no doubt about that. But during his presentation to the local media at the launch of the company's CT200h, he drew on the statements from two heavies of the European automotive industry to corroborate his view that diesel engine development is headed down a technological cul-de-sac.

First came the remark attributed to Mercedes-Benz engineer Doctor Herbert Kohler during the Frankfurt Motor Show 18 months ago, that the future of diesel looked uncertain beyond the next five to ten years. The Lexus boss also quoted PSA Peugeot Citroen spokesman Jean-Marc Suret in a Bloomberg interview, in which Suret said that Euro 6 would have an impact on vehicle prices.

"Research from London-based analysts at IHS Automotive shows that in the next 15 years, hybrid will account for well over 13 per cent of European passenger vehicle sales -- well up from the current one per cent," Cramb continued, before explaining also that many prestige car manufacturers in Europe were already headed down the path of hybrid-drive system development.

Dr Kohler's remarks were made in the context of promoting the company's own DiesOtto technology, which effectively applies diesel combustion principles to petrol engines and will likely streamline engine production for Mercedes-Benz along one technological avenue.

DiesOtto, which is variously known also as HCCI (Mazda) and CAI (Hyundai/Kia), offers diesel engine efficiencies without the soot or the NOx emissions. Confusingly though, Kia's Dr Joachim Hahn believes that such an engine will fall foul of future emissions regulations, while Mazda believes that the new technology can stay ahead of legislation.

For its part, Lexus and parent company Toyota, see nothing but clear skies ahead for hybrid-drive systems. Even once petrol becomes prohibitively expensive to buy, Toyota will have hydrogen fuel cell vehicles to bring to market and the company's environmental guru, Bill Reinert, has even named a date for the first commercial application of the clean technology: 2015.

And fuel cell vehicles are basically hybrids too -- with the petrol engine replaced by a fuel cell stack.

Personally I don't think Euro 6 will get a guernsey in Australia, Parliament is still debating on whether or not Euro 5 should be implemented.