Didnt realise it had dropped so much

[b0son]

Originally Posted by vztrt

But naturally the internet expert such as yourself would know this!

Way to miss the point... being that there's no point giving yourself a pat on the back for operating at capacity if your capacity is deliberately small (and far smaller than times past).

How much more production realistically can Ford afford to cut before the Falcon becomes a loss-making exercise?

[bobthebilda]

Originally Posted by stang65

Just realised who the thread starter was Whats new ? Racked another one on the board.

So Stang, I came across the article just by cruising the net. I didnt write the article, my actions didnt cause the facts of the article to occur, and yet the best you can come up with is that I posted it.

You got me, I didnt account for the 1 percent of complete twits that thought it was a current article.

[vztrt]

Originally Posted by b0son

Way to miss the point... being that there's no point giving yourself a pat on the back for operating at capacity if your capacity is deliberately small (and far smaller than times past).

The capacity is about AU levels (actually higher). Ford don't have the stupid amount of stock like the AU had (even with lower amounts of manufacturing) or what the VE had (mind you they still have excess stock). So Ford set their manufacturing up so their levels are right.

How much more production realistically can Ford afford to cut before the Falcon becomes a loss-making exercise?

How many losses can Holden endure before they shut down?

[Jesmol]

Part of my job is to track sales to production to predict future production rates.

ATM both companies are up the creek, with excess stock. Ford are having more down days that initially planned between now and christmans to reduce stock levels. Holden are supposedly ramping up production , to cover Cruze buidl commencement next year, just means there will be plenty of cars on grass.

Both companies lines are running at a rate greater than sales, and are building to stock , which is a real problem.

[ford man xf]

Originally Posted by Jesmol

Part of my job is to track sales to production to predict future production rates.

ATM both companies are up the creek, with excess stock. Ford are having more down days that initially planned between now and christmans to reduce stock levels. Holden are supposedly ramping up production , to cover Cruze buidl commencement next year, just means there will be plenty of cars on grass.

Both companies lines are running at a rate greater than sales, and are building to stock , which is a real problem.

Interesting points. Where do you see both companies heading in the near future?

[4Vman]

Originally Posted by b0son

Way to miss the point... being that there's no point giving yourself a pat on the back for operating at capacity if your capacity is deliberately small (and far smaller than times past).

How much more production realistically can Ford afford to cut before the Falcon becomes a loss-making exercise?

But you do give yourself a pat on the back if you rationalise your production processes to cater to current demand and turn a profit in the process..
Then gradually over time rebuild sustainable demand at current (or better) profit levels...

Or you could follow Holdens fiscal model and just keep building cars well above demand to avoid slowing down your line, park them on grass then have to discount the bum out of them all the while making a loss year on year.....

I know which company id rather have shares in....

[Joe5619]

Personally, I think we have hit the bottom of the curve & will see local production increase for both companies in years to come. Both seem to be finally reacting to changing customer tastes & this will be seen next year, with I4 Falcon, Diesel Territ & Curze at Holden. I don’t see the doom & gloom others seem to see!!

[stang65]

Originally Posted by bobthebilda

So Stang, I came across the article just by cruising the net. I didnt write the article, my actions didnt cause the facts of the article to occur, and yet the best you can come up with is that I posted it.

You got me, I didnt account for the 1 percent of complete twits that thought it was a current article.

You dont mention that the link is 4 years old,Who would expect someone to troll the net and dig up an article that old. And most post`s you have posted have a negative or bag ford in one way or another.

As for name calling I am not the only one in the thread that mistook the post. Time for Bob to grow up I think.

[stang65]

Originally Posted by irlewy86

Did they rehash an old quote or am I forgetting a manufacturer.

No mate your reading a link that is four years old.

[bobthebilda]

Originally Posted by stang65

You dont mention that the link is 4 years old,Who would expect someone to troll the net and dig up an article that old. And most post`s you have posted have a negative or bag ford in one way or another.

As for name calling I am not the only one in the thread that mistook the post. Time for Bob to grow up I think.

Just came across the following article. You hear the bad news, but until you look back you dont realise how bad it is.

http://www.carsguide.com.au/site/ne..._in_tough_times

Only 4 years ago, they were pumping 450 off the line each day on average.

Now I hear on average, the number is half that.

My apologies stang -

The top of the article states it was from 17 october 2006.

however, just for you....

Only iiii (four) (4) years ago, they were pumping 450 off the line each day on average................

[Jesmol]

Originally Posted by bobthebilda

Only iiii (four) (4) years ago, they were pumping 450 off the line each day on average................

Only 2 years ago Holden were doing 550 - 600 / day, they're now half that too.

Both of them are targetting the same market which is now about 1/2 the size it used to be , everyone going for different cars.

Both production lines need to slow down production of the large platform , or risk massize overstocking.

The red team are waiting for Cruze production to commence, to fill the capacity gap as well as the police vehicle.

Unfortunately all Ford have in the pipeline is the Territory upgrade in April next year, and EcoBoost Falcon in June. not sure if its going to be enough to bypass some major pain.

[stang65]

Thanks bob, glad we got that all sorted out.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by 4Vman

But you do give yourself a pat on the back if you rationalise your production processes to cater to current demand and turn a profit in the process..
Then gradually over time rebuild sustainable demand at current (or better) profit levels...

For the buyer, this is seriously bad news. Just like economy of scale improves profitability, scaling down harms profit. Maintain the same profit levels with lower production? That can only happen by cutting costs. How do you cut costs? Cut your overheads, your labour costs, your component costs. Labour costs havent exactly fallen, most overheads have only gone up. That leaves components. Ask the irate territory owners what they think about the quality of their cars...

I can buy an XR6 cheaper now than I could in 2004. And Ford are still turning a profit? That doesnt exactly give me much reason to have faith in the quality of the product if I simply do the math.

That isnt directed solely at Ford. The same (or worse) must be true for Holden. The VEII's interior screams cost-cutting for example. What about more critical componentry?

[Joe5619]

Originally Posted by b0son

I can buy an XR6 cheaper now than I could in 2004. And Ford are still turning a profit? That doesnt exactly give me much reason to have faith in the quality of the product if I simply do the math.

I can I sugguest you look at the current built quality before you comment?? I own a 10 month old XR6T & I invite you to come over & check the built quality!! There is not one problem or poor built quality to be seen any where on the car!! Yet so many on here complain about the built quailty of the BA & dont about the FG!!

So I'll sunmmaries again with one added point, Less cars than 2006, more profit than 2006, & better quality than 2006...

[Dr Smith]

Originally Posted by b0son

For the buyer, this is seriously bad news. Just like economy of scale improves profitability, scaling down harms profit. Maintain the same profit levels with lower production? That can only happen by cutting costs. How do you cut costs? Cut your overheads, your labour costs, your component costs. Labour costs havent exactly fallen, most overheads have only gone up. That leaves components. Ask the irate territory owners what they think about the quality of their cars...

That would be true if the overall profit were the same value even though you are selling half the number of cars. But it isin't, Ford are building half the number and profit has dropped considerably so your claim that they have stripped out quality, componentry, labour costs isn't valid. As to Terry quality, it's better now then when it was released. What componentry do you know of that was replaced by inferior type since 2004-06?

[b0son]

Originally Posted by Joe5619

So I'll sunmmaries again with one added point, Less cars than 2006, more profit than 2006, & better quality than 2006...

If that is indeed true, were we getting reamed hard in 2006...

[Dr Smith]

Originally Posted by Joe5619

So I'll sunmmaries again with one added point, Less cars than 2006, more profit than 2006, & better quality than 2006...

You should be punished for making such factual claims, you do know that those claims just wouldn't make the press or the thoughts of some here...not enough doom and gloom for some it would seem, lol.

[4Vman]

Originally Posted by b0son

For the buyer, this is seriously bad news. Just like economy of scale improves profitability, scaling down harms profit. Maintain the same profit levels with lower production? That can only happen by cutting costs. How do you cut costs? Cut your overheads, your labour costs, your component costs. Labour costs havent exactly fallen, most overheads have only gone up. That leaves components. Ask the irate territory owners what they think about the quality of their cars...

I can buy an XR6 cheaper now than I could in 2004. And Ford are still turning a profit? That doesnt exactly give me much reason to have faith in the quality of the product if I simply do the math.

That isnt directed solely at Ford. The same (or worse) must be true for Holden. The VEII's interior screams cost-cutting for example. What about more critical componentry?

You're all over the place, seriously.
You're making no allowance for more efficient manufacturing processes, better materials and cheaper buy in prices.
Ive owned every major model Falcon upgrade in the past 14 years and the FG is the best quality yet.
You seem to think Volume = Profit.... that is an extremely naive assumption....

Yes the market place has changed, there are simply far more options for consumers now than even 5 years ago, Ford and Holden have adjusted to demand in other areas, unfortunately not as well as the imports.

That doesnt meant they cant adjust and re-invent themselves....

[b0son]

Originally Posted by Dr Smith

That would be true if the overall profit were the same value even though you are selling half the number of cars. But it isin't, Ford are building half the number and profit has dropped considerably so your claim that they have stripped out quality, componentry, labour costs isn't valid.

I did say in order to maintain the same level of profitability with falling production volumes, quality would have to suffer.

If they've maintained quality at the expense of profit AND volumes continue to fall, then at some point soon, Ford US will question whether they can get a better return investing in other markets. Either Falcadores will decline in quality, or they'll disappear altogether.

[4Vman]

Originally Posted by b0son

I did say in order to maintain the same level of profitability with falling production volumes, quality would have to suffer.

If they've maintained quality at the expense of profit AND volumes continue to fall, then at some point soon, Ford US will question whether they can get a better return investing in other markets. Either Falcadores will decline in quality, or they'll disappear altogether.

Or they can make their processes more efficient and buy more cost effective components.. Without compormising the finished product?

You make no allowance for this.;
Better trained workers, less union interference, far cheaper volume component manufacturing processes, outsourcing of components etc etc....

[b0son]

Originally Posted by 4Vman

You're making no allowance for more efficient manufacturing processes, better materials and cheaper buy in prices.

Steel's gone up considerably. If componentry has fallen, again, what have those component manufacturers had to do in order cut price? They already operate on very tight margins.

You seem to think Volume = Profit

Its a pretty important part of the equation, especially when so much $$$ is tied up in the manufacturing infrastructure.

That doesnt meant they cant adjust and re-invent themselves....

Yes, well.... Holden's answer is to sell us Holden-badged Koreans. At least Ford's smaller offerings are good (fiesta, focus, mondeo).

[b0son]

Originally Posted by Dr Smith

You should be punished for making such factual claims

But he said profit is up. You're saying its down. And you're giving each other high fives??

[4Vman]

Originally Posted by b0son

Steel's gone up considerably. If componentry has fallen, again, what have those component manufacturers had to do in order cut price? They already operate on very tight margins.



Its a pretty important part of the equation, especially when so much $$$ is tied up in the manufacturing infrastructure.



Yes, well.... Holden's answer is to sell us Holden-badged Koreans. At least Ford's smaller offerings are good (fiesta, focus, mondeo).

You really need to spend some time looking at how suppliers manufacture components now V even 5 years ago.......

Ford and Holden share many suppliers now when even a few years ago they each manufactured these parts inhouse....
Ford/Holden are just large assembly plants now, they dont manufacture anywhere near the amount of components inhouse as they used to, this has meant significant cost savings without compromising quality.

Drive past the Broadmeadows Factory and compare it to 15 years ago, a fair chunk has been sold off to subsiduary suppliers...

[Dr Smith]

Originally Posted by b0son

I did say in order to maintain the same level of profitability with falling production volumes, quality would have to suffer.

If they've maintained quality at the expense of profit AND volumes continue to fall, then at some point soon, Ford US will question whether they can get a better return investing in other markets. Either Falcadores will decline in quality, or they'll disappear altogether.

I think we're mixing things up here. Profit per car may be the same or even higher then 2006, however overall company profit is down because volume is down. I don't see how this can relate back to vehicle quality needing to suffer. In my experience, especially in manufacturing, you gain knowledge on your processes and can make changes that might save you money, simplify production, help stock levels etc...

eg: lets say If Ford made $200mill profit in 2006 and tomorrow makes $200mill selling half the number of cars, all with increased warranty claims, recalls, increased failure rates then you would have a substaniated point.

[Joe5619]

Originally Posted by b0son

If that is indeed true, were we getting reamed hard in 2006...

Most likely.. Might explain why Ford is straggling abit today as these customers have not come back???

[b0son]

Originally Posted by 4Vman

You really need to spend some time looking at how suppliers manufacture components now V even 5 years ago.......

Modernisation? Again, that would require an investment. One that wont be repaid if volumes keep heading south.

Ford and Holden share many suppliers now when even a few years ago they each manufactured these parts inhouse....

What happens when the component manufacturers cant turn enough of a profit?

Ford/Holden are just large assembly plants now, they dont manufacture anywhere near the amount of components inhouse as they used to, this has meant significant cost savings without compromising quality.

And when there's nothing left to outsource?

[Dr Smith]

Originally Posted by b0son

Modernisation? Again, that would require an investment. One that wont be repaid if volumes keep heading south.



What happens when the component manufacturers cant turn enough of a profit?



And when there's nothing left to outsource?

Geez... I hope you pick a winner today...

[b0son]

Originally Posted by Dr Smith

I think we're mixing things up here. Profit per car may be the same or even higher then 2006

may be, or is? going forward, do Ford have as much scope for cost-cutting? I would think not. it would surely be diminishing returns once you strip out your manufacturing and just assemble the things?

[4Vman]

Originally Posted by b0son

Modernisation? Again, that would require an investment. One that wont be repaid if volumes keep heading south.



What happens when the component manufacturers cant turn enough of a profit?



And when there's nothing left to outsource?

Outsourcing instead of inhouse manufacturing allows Ford to control and basically "fix" their manufacturing costs.
The supplier makes the investment in technology to be able to compete, not Ford, these suppliers sell this technology to many other customers so its amortised over a far wider number.
A simple re design of a fastner can take mins out of the assembly process, thats a saving.
Rapid prototyping technology and CAD has meant parts can be developed for 1/10th the cost now than 5 years ago....

[b0son]

Originally Posted by 4Vman

Rapid prototyping technology and CAD has meant parts can be developed for 1/10th the cost now than 5 years ago....

Fair enough. I guess I'm not used to hearing about anything being made here anymore, and certainly not with modern processes. Everything seems to be heading to China...