Economy

[BHDOGS]

To put it in perspective when 9/11 happened and everything crashed a few clever people made millions of dollars by buying up cheap stocks big thats how it works it goes down and then back up or you can always invest in items that never lose such as gold i was gonna buy some in 1995 i think it was worth about 800 at the time an ounce now its pushing 1600 or buy oil stocks no matter how poor people are the trucks will keep on rolling.

[robjg33]

Originally Posted by BHDOGS

To put it in perspective when 9/11 happened and everything crashed a few clever people made millions of dollars by buying up cheap stocks big thats how it works it goes down and then back up or you can always invest in items that never lose such as gold i was gonna buy some in 1995 i think it was worth about 800 at the time an ounce now its pushing 1600 or buy oil stocks no matter how poor people are the trucks will keep on rolling.

very true

[gtfpv]

Sometimes i dont consider any ones age or experience when applying to peoples posts so ford man xf . sorry for being a little harsh with words . what seems obvious to me might not be to others and visa versa . was going to apoligise via PM , but thought i'd rather publicize it .

[ford man xf]

Originally Posted by gtfpv

Sometimes i dont consider any ones age or experience when applying to peoples posts so ford man xf . sorry for being a little harsh with words . what seems obvious to me might not be to others and visa versa . was going to apoligise via PM , but thought i'd rather publicize it .

All good, I don't mind you having a go that's what a forum discussion is all about, I expected a little back from my post but the ****** comment was a bit unexpected, altough I am a proud Pricktorian

[gtfpv]

ford man xf .
visit an emergency room on a hot day , you will be surprised at how many people come into hospital having had a heart attack in thier 20's , normally from a building site of some sort . i couldnt believe it . i too thought 38 degrees was exceptable to work , and i was reminded of safety conditions being eroded by bosses driving productivity , not knowing that hot days cause dehydration and heart attacks . i didnt evn know this existed till i entered emergency , with a suspected heart attack after working a midnight shift in my 40s ( lucky it wansn't ) however i was so surprised at the amount of males in thier early 20's coming in who had suffered heart attacks on the job , the nurses said it always happens on hot days . as in rainy days . pnumonia is common there after and death rates from slipping and falls increase on those days .
it sounds good when you bag conditions when you worry working for less and things like that to help your country out , but when you fall off a roof or something and your boss replaces you when your in hospital , you might understand the bigger picture .

unions only want to keep up with inflation , not a big slice of the pie .
however the wealthy corperations must love you , till you get injured , or someone elses relative wants a job , because i'm sure you'll be punted when the times right , in fact it sounds like you have already had a few jobs . i bet those union boys your whinging about are still working at the place where you had your last job right . well you were obviously a better higher moraled worker , so what happened ?

[gtfpv]

knew a middle manager like ford man xf once . the guys stopped work due to a gas smell in the air , this boof head started complaining that the guys will stop work for anything and were bunging it on , went out there with his head held high and took a big sniff , passed out and got carried away by paramedics hehe .
its amazing how all these anti unionworkers and the like , such as middle managers , always seem to be the ones pushed out the door , or working as casuals . its ashame really because deep down they really do want to work hard , and believe in an honest dollar , unfortunately they dont realise the sick leave conditions , annual leave safety standards and manning issues that they seem hell bent on giving away themselves in honour of there bosses , werent acheived by people like them , and that is there down fall , and the reason they keep swallowing company pills .
i'm in one of the strongest unions in the country , and i have to work in the rain / wind, etc when required as long as there work areas are deemed safe to do so , which thankfully we make it safe 100% of the time .
we do our best to leave people like ford man xf alone and they normally take themselves out , by giving them enough rope , they always take it , and get waved good bye , or escorted to the gate by the boss when thier time comes . its amazing how not only does this happen on the floor , but also in middle management , they always seem to go out via taxi and have an 18 month turnover . wonder how long ford man xf holds down a job ?

[ford man xf]

Thats all good and all, but does increase in wages contribute to inflation?

[CJR09]

Originally Posted by ford man xf

Thats all good and all, but does increase in wages contribute to inflation?

of course it does

wages go up - company operating expenses go up - consumer is charged more

[ford man xf]

Originally Posted by CJR09

of course it does

wages go up - company operating expenses go up - consumer is charged more

[AU101]

Originally Posted by ford man xf

Thats all good and all, but does increase in wages contribute to inflation?

Never said it didn't contribute to inflation, you were the one that stated that it all starts with greedy unionists. Unions push for increases just to keep up with inflation, yes its a never-ending cycle, what came first the chicken or the egg?

So your happy to continue working for the same rate of pay as you did 10- 20 years ago? Inflation doesn't bother you?

[Russ]

I'd play it safe at the moment and put some cash in a term deposit account, either that or here

[z80]

Originally Posted by ford man xf

Do many people here have a share portfolio? I have been thinking about buying into the share market for a while, even if is a small investment to start with, but the market is so shaky at the moment, I know the resources is usually a save bet, but the way the world economy is going at the moment I feel almost insane taking the plunge.

Back on Topic?


No don't buy shares right now...wait till the Aus all ords hits about 3200, thats the sweet spot.

Or the Dow Jones at 7-8000 i would buy as well.

Just buy stuff like CBA bank shares, they always seem to do better than interest rates....but only buy them for the DIVIDEND...not the share price in the short term

You do know only mugs buy shares to make short term capital gains don't you?

It's all about the dividend...the dividend is like rent on a rental property.

Who cares what it's worth as long as it keeps paying you an income?

[ford man xf]

Originally Posted by z80

Back on Topic?


No don't buy shares right now...wait till the Aus all ords hits about 3200, thats the sweet spot.

Or the Dow Jones at 7-8000 i would buy as well.

Just buy stuff like CBA bank shares, they always seem to do better than interest rates....but only buy them for the DIVIDEND...not the share price in the short term

You do know only mugs buy shares to make short term capital gains don't you?

It's all about the dividend...the dividend is like rent on a rental property.

Who cares what it's worth as long as it keeps paying you an income?

Cheers for the advice, dividend returns are good short term if the company is performing well, but you can always buy shares for a bad performing company now that are at a good price and invest for the long term hoping the company improves its figures but this can be a big maistake if economic climites stagnate.

[Auslandau]

Originally Posted by z80

Back on Topic?


No don't buy shares right now...wait till the Aus all ords hits about 3200, thats the sweet spot.

Or the Dow Jones at 7-8000 i would buy as well.

Isn't the idea to buy when low rather than wait for the ords to be higher? I thought it was buy when down sell when up ........

[z80]

Originally Posted by Auslandau

Isn't the idea to buy when low rather than wait for the ords to be higher? I thought it was buy when down sell when up ........

Yep...correct...buy when it appears against your better judgement and when the rest of the herd is selling.

Isn't that what I said?


LOL....what is the all ords at the moment mate? How about the Dow?


(4500 and 12000...I'm sure you read my post wrong )

[Auslandau]

Originally Posted by z80

Yep...correct...buy when it appears against your better judgement and when the rest of the herd is selling.

Isn't that what I said?


LOL....what is the all ords at the moment mate? How about the Dow?


(4500 and 12000...I'm sure you read my post wrong )

Yep I did. Read it too quick. Just keeping you on your toes ....

[gtfpv]

OOOOOOUUUUCH !!!! some greedy unionists have ruined the worlds economy again !!!!

[SEZ213]

http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/newsma...economic-fears

Shares fell 4.4 percent on the All Ordinaries Index, adding to reported losses of around $65 billion in the previous three days.

Banks dropped sharply, with ANZ shares falling by more than five percent, Westpac and National Australia Bank by more than four per cent, and Commonwealth Bank by more than two per cent.

But Federal Treasurer Wayne Swan said Australia is on stronger economic ground than Europe and the United States.

"Australians should never forget that our economic credentials are among the strongest in the developed world," he told reporters in Brisbane.

"Australia has a proven track record of dealing with global economic uncertainty.

"There is just a world of difference between the situation in Australia and the situation in Europe and the United States."

Mr Swan said growth in the Asia-Pacific region remained strong, and Australia's financial institutions were robust.

"We are located in the right part of the world at the right time," he said.

He said economic power was shifting from the west to the east, and that would have an important bearing on Australia amid times of economic uncertainty.

However, Mr Swan said the nation was not immune to global events, as shown by the fall on the share market, but pointed to Australia's low unemployment, low public debt, "robust" financial institutions and "a huge pipeline of mining investment" as signs of local economic stability.

Today's diving stocks was not unexpected following overnight downturns in Europe and Wall Street.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 4.3 per cent in its worst one-day drop since the financial crisis, while European stocks also fell more than three per cent.

The Australian dollar also dropped overnight — down more than two US cents, trading at 104.63 US cents at 7am (AEST).

56 million fell off the Australian sharemarket this morning, it has relieved a little, but I certainly wouldn't be buying shares...

[trippytaka]

Originally Posted by Sezzy

http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/newsma...economic-fears



56 million fell off the Australian sharemarket this morning, it has relieved a little, but I certainly wouldn't be buying shares...

56 BILLION.

... edit, now 60 billion.

[SEZ213]

Originally Posted by trippytaka

56 BILLION.

Sorry, I'm a little 'dosed up'...slip of the keyboard...

[trippytaka]

Originally Posted by Sezzy

Sorry, I'm a little 'dosed up'...slip of the keyboard...

Haha, no worries, i did the same thing last week.

[trippytaka]

Good article on the #fail of the last GFC bailouts... as much as it will hurt, and by God it will hurt, the world needs to take its medicine now. We need a deflationary plan, not a stimulus.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-l...805-1iemc.html

The last plan, to respond to the global financial crisis in 2008, was the mother of all stimulus programs. It was designed to flood the world with money and restore confidence.

Instead, it flooded the world with more debt. Although that plan did prop up markets for a time, taxpayers have paid handsomely for it. It is our debt now. It was transferred from the private to the public sector. We own it, and it's higher by the trillions.

And now, the “crackpots” of the Tea Party will be parading like the purveyors of great wisdom. Perhaps policymakers did get it wrong, perhaps they should have let the whole show collapse in 2008, let capitalism really take its course and wait for new corporate life to spring up from the dust and ashes.
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Unlike Japan, which buried its economic problems and never prospered as before, America's resilience had always relied on its capacity for boom and bust, for fast regeneration. Instead, this time, it opted for corporate welfare. The moral hazard of this humungous stimulus though could only ever put off the inevitable reckoning that now appears to be upon us.

It may be yet too early to make the call. But this bloodbath on world markets has left the emperor entirely nude. It is quite conceivable, especially as Washington has always danced to Wall Street's tune, that the plan now, if any, is just to keep printing money till paper currency and therefore $US-denominated debt is rendered worthless.

What other plan could there be? Over the Atlantic, the European Central Bank was buying distressed sovereign bonds with its ears pinned back last night, desperately trying to keep a lid on the crisis as yields on Italian, Spanish and Portuguese bonds were blowing out. Just like the US government, European authorities are now the number one customers for their own debts. It is hardly a sustainable situation.

Indeed the once-lauded US Federal Reserve is merely a private entity controlled by Wall Street banks which brought the crisis on in the first place thanks to its ultra-low cash rate settings, settings designed to appease the share market and the financial elite. Then, in the wake of the 2008 rout, Washington went and gave the Fed another $US2 trillion, by expanding its balance sheet, to buy US government bonds and keep interest rates down.

It is London-to-a-brick that some on Wall Street, and other assorted speculators, even exploited the end of the most recent stimulus plan – the last round of quantitative easing (QE) which ended in June – by once again “shorting” the markets to make a profit.

Let's explain. Heading into the 2008 crisis, Goldman Sachs and its ilk were short-selling the very structured mortgage products they'd created and advised their clients to buy. We are talking collateralised debt obligations and the likes, products which helped drive the property boom to ridiculous heights.

As world markets consequently blew up, the Wall Street banks were making – on the other side of their ledgers – big profits from these short-sales.

Then they got bailed out by taxpayers for the sake of systemic risk. They were too big to fail, they said. Washington agreed. Amid the host of stimulus programs from which they gained was the first QE stimulus program (whereby the US effectively prints more money via Federal Reserve purchases of US treasuries).

Around this time last year, when markets were first reeling from the Greek sovereign debt crisis the first QE program was coming to a close. No more “play money”. As the share market began to get wobbly and the Wall Street pundits came out in force demanding help from Capitol Hill, the second round of QE was unveiled. Excellent, the market rallied again.

Until QE2 ran out in June, that is. As the fracas over the debt ceiling was unravelling – and masking the real story - many speculators would have plotted their “play money” was running out and promptly gone “short” once again, effectively pushing the market to the brink.

This is rational market behaviour after all. Can't blame the speculators, only the governments for falling for the “too big to fail” Wall Street begging bowl act.

Only time will tell what policy makers should have done. This latest bloodbath suggests they may have taken the wrong course of action. What we do know, and this is the ultimate paradox, is where the capital is fleeing.

Bond market paradox

When it came to making a profit, the bond market was the place to be this week. The irony is that the US is in such trouble financially, why would any sane investor wish to park their money in US treasuries? The gold price didn't do much last night, except in $A terms, but bond prices shot through the roof. The US debt market therefore remains the number one “safe haven” destination for capital.

Short term paper even attracted inverse yields! Such was the frantic rush for a safe place to hide last night that banks were even charging their customers a fee for parking money in treasuries. In other words, rather than getting a yield on your money, you pay a fee.

“Bank of New York Mellon said it will begin charging a fee next week on customers who have vastly increased their deposit balances over the past month. The move is the latest sign of the worries roiling global markets,” said a report.

Bank of New York, the biggest custodial bank in the US, said that it will charge 0.13 per cent, plus an additional fee if the one-month Treasury yield falls below zero on depositors that have accounts with an average monthly balance of $50 million "per client relationship," according to a letter reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.

So now a US 10-year bond yield is just 2.41 per cent. Bear in mind that when it comes to the bond market, prices are the inverse of yields. The prices of all bonds soared last night, driving the yields to their lowest point since 2009. Even though the risk of the US as an investment destination has escalated to new levels, global capital continues to flee into US debt. Even as the prospect for the US ever paying back its debts, or meeting its future obligations, becomes more remote.

It's a reflection of how desperate things have become. The conundrum: where to put your money? Share markets are overvalued, especially now that the latest ructions will wreak all sorts of dislocations and current earnings forecasts will have to be reined in. Commodities are plunging on the diminishing prospects for global growth and demand. Gold is already sky-high and bond markets are groaning under an ever-rising weight of supply.

Many governments will struggle to just meet interest payments. Against this backdrop, US treasuries have rallied as investors flee for cover. It's the Armageddon play.

Now then, what's the plan? There seem to be two choices on the policy menu.

One, the deflation option: let market forces take over, let the defaults begin and provide a social safety net.

Two, the inflation option: keep splashing the cash to reduce the debts to zero. Kick the can down the road. This is clearly the Wall Street option. The proxies in Washington will duly deliver more stimulus, stimulus the public can ill afford, stimulus which could bring another Weimar Republic, but stimulus which will diminish the size of the debt.

[buggerlugs]

Shares and housing very cactus at the moment.............Glad I got rid of my managed funds 12 months ago........

[trippytaka]

The basic rule of thumb here is that the markets have been over valued for years, spurred on by cheap credit (souynd familiar?).

Households around the world have way too much debt to help generate REAL economic growth. The GFC bailouts just passed the buck from banks to countries. There is WAY too much debt in the world and this is the beginning of the contraction that will normalise it.

It might take up to a decade before the world can pay down its debts. Just look at the Japanese recession - again fuelled by asset speculation, just like the US and europe.

[SEZ213]

I am curious though, is that 56 billion on top of the 60 odd billion for the last couple of days? Equating to around $120billion?

[Paxton]

Originally Posted by Sezzy

I am curious though, is that 56 billion on top of the 60 odd billion for the last couple of days? Equating to around $120billion?

No. A cumulative total for the week.

This time, however, we've spent all the money Costello saved, and there is no $900 cheques to give out, no insulation for houses, and the Gillard Memorial School Halls are all erected. Expect some very hard times to come as the Americans (and Australians) run out of money.

[SEZ213]

Ah, well, I guess I should start my vege patch now...

[Polyal]

Does anyone else have a weird feeling about the economy at the moment? Can resources really carry us for much longer?

Housing coming down
Inflation going up
Therefore generally rates up
Unemployment ?? Not sure, stagnant?
The dollar is still high which kills our exports
Retail is hurting bad

So no I would not be investing in anything, sit and wait until there is some better signs and then buy while it is down and wait another 5 years or so.

Problem is there are no golden rules, things could get worse. IMO only invest what you are prepared to lose.

[SEZ213]

Originally Posted by Polyal

Does anyone else have a weird feeling about the economy at the moment? Can resources really carry us for much longer?

IMHO, no, they can't...it's arguable that this has been a long time coming too, despite all the optimism in markets, etc.

To be brutally honest, I don't think things 'could' get worse, as much as they 'will' get worse...

[gtfpv]

Originally Posted by Polyal

Does anyone else have a weird feeling about the economy at the moment? Can resources really carry us for much longer?

Housing coming down
Inflation going up
Therefore generally rates up
Unemployment ?? Not sure, stagnant?
The dollar is still high which kills our exports
Retail is hurting bad

So no I would not be investing in anything, sit and wait until there is some better signs and then buy while it is down and wait another 5 years or so.

Problem is there are no golden rules, things could get worse. IMO only invest what you are prepared to lose.

my opinion is . housing wont come excessively down , maybe 10 to 20% max interest rates will fall atleast 1% . and inflation will still go up pay rises to match . unemployment may increase in small business . but boom in bigger businesses . our dollar will come down and match U.S AND RETAIL WILL HRT .

GENERALLY , if you have a job in a recession , you end up pulling ahead , as your debts decrease . often recessions dont affect the masses of ordinary working people , aside from the non essential type employment . which we pretty much dont utilise now anyway .
just my guess . i'm not saying i'm right .