Vfacts Jan 25

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

I wouldnt read too much into the port strike situation.
I frequented our port regularly throughout late Dec to end of Jan and although the holding yards were all but empty early on, they were chock a block by mid Jan with truck loads leaving left, right and centre and this is little old Adelaide, can imagine Eastern states would have been processing too.

What you saw in Adelaide was mild action compared to Brisbane and Melbourne.

Adelaide action limited to 8 hour shifts and did not include 1 week stoppages so no wonder
the holding wards were full by mid month.

Brisbane and Port Kembla were completely stopped between the 8th and 14th so bigger delays.
where nothing was offloaded. Poor old Melbourne Melbourne was down until after the 27th so
a lot of dealerships in those areas missed out on those deliveries before the end of the month.
Big delays on Melbourne ships leaving to pick up next lot of deliveries for February…..

https://www.worldcargonews.com/news/...n/?gdpr=accept

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by jpd80

What you saw in Adelaide was mild action compared to Brisbane and Melbourne.

Adelaide action limited to 8 hour shifts and did not include 1 week stoppages so no wonder
the holding wards were full by mid month.

Brisbane and Port Kembla were completely stopped between the 8th and 14th so bigger delays.
where nothing was offloaded. Poor old Melbourne Melbourne was down until after the 27th so
a lot of dealerships in those areas missed out on those deliveries before the end of the month.
Big delays on Melbourne ships leaving to pick up next lot of deliveries for February…..

https://www.worldcargonews.com/news/...n/?gdpr=accept

Yet deliveries were only down between 3.1 and 3.3% across those Eastern states and 2.8% in SA from the same time last year.

[Dr Terry]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Yet deliveries were only down between 3.1 and 3.3% across those Eastern states and 2.8% in SA from the same time last year.

Yes, but they've been having wharf dramas on & off for a few years.

Dr Terry

[Dr Smith]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

I wouldnt read too much into the port strike situation.
I frequented our port regularly throughout late Dec to end of Jan and although the holding yards were all but empty early on, they were chock a block by mid Jan with truck loads leaving left, right and centre and this is little old Adelaide, can imagine Eastern states would have been processing too.

There was over 30K vehicles still on the water around the main ports around Australia on 15/1.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by Dr Terry

Yes, but they've been having wharf dramas on & off for a few years.

Dr Terry

No doubt, I just question how much impact these challenges really have and how much is industry spin designed to hold off the inevitible price reductions, an economy as ours, will realise.

1 positive months results, demand is high, dont miss out.
Next month is down...external reasons.

Rinse, repeat.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Yet deliveries were only down between 3.1 and 3.3% across those Eastern states and 2.8% in SA from the same time last year.

Correct and in real numbers, we’re talking about 900 odd deliveries, so maybe there was little disruption
but equally, a drop in say, Tesla deliveries could also explain the difference…

January 2025 - 87,625 deliveries
January 2024 - 88,551 deliveries

Ford deliveries were actually up so probably didn’t affect them…
Toyota was up too so that strengthens your suggestion that the port action wasn’t severe on deliveries…

[kevino]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

I wouldnt read too much into the port strike situation.
I frequented our port regularly throughout late Dec to end of Jan and although the holding yards were all but empty early on, they were chock a block by mid Jan with truck loads leaving left, right and centre and this is little old Adelaide, can imagine Eastern states would have been processing too.

Melb and P Kembla are the big import hubs for vehicles - that would tell the story.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

No doubt, I just question how much impact these challenges really have and how much is industry spin designed to hold off the inevitible price reductions, an economy as ours, will realise.

1 positive months results, demand is high, dont miss out.
Next month is down...external reasons.

Rinse, repeat.

That’s BS and you know it.

Both Ford and Toyota deliveries were up last month, all I was asking was whether total sales could have been higher.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by jpd80

That’s BS and you know it.

Both Ford and Toyota deliveries were up last month, all I was asking was whether total sales could have been higher.

No, I dont know it.

As you pointed out, in real numbers its actually 900 units which hardly supports the notion that the port disruptions are having a great impact.
Prado is steady, Everest has continued its decline, utes across the board are on the nose and have seen considerable falls from their lofty heights and Rav4 is churning along at normal levels.
None of that suggests if not for port disruptions we'd see significant change, its January and January is historically slow which is probably why they've chosen it to take industrial action.
They buy new cars too.

Not sure why my comment that wasnt directed at you has drawn such a prickly response, or do you have skin in the game...

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

No, I dont know it.

As you pointed out, in real numbers its actually 900 units which hardly supports the notion that the port disruptions are having a great impact.
Prado is steady, Everest has continued its decline, utes across the board are on the nose and have seen considerable falls from their lofty heights and Rav4 is churning along at normal levels.
None of that suggests if not for port disruptions we'd see significant change, its January and January is historically slow which is probably why they've chosen it to take industrial action.
They buy new cars too.

Not sure why my comment that wasnt directed at you has drawn such a prickly response, or do you have skin in the game...

Your post triggered me because:
We were all having an interesting conversation up until you decided to pull your monthly trick
of suggesting Ford fans trying to find excuses why a certain model sales didn’t live up to expectations…
As far as I can tell, nobody crossed into that area save for a tiny spar from one person re Prado reports.

Restarting our conversation:
Yes, I actually conceded that Everest deliveries had declined against Prado deliveries, no one disputes that.
What people are trying to work out is how much the strike disrupted Eastern states ports.
From the link I posted it is clear that Adelaide was the least affected port so what you saw there
was not the same as experience at Brisbane, Port Kembla and Melbourne.

The difference between January 2024 and last month was 926 units, its highly likely that
without those restrictions, last month deliveries could have been higher than January 2024.
One post advising ove 30,000 vehicles waiting to berth as of 14th January -many of those
we’re not unloaded before the end of the month…
(what if Toyota and Ford each had another ship that didn’t offload in time, that would completely change things)
Normally ship has about 6,000 capacity which aligns with the number of Ranger/Everest delivered.
Like Toyota, Ford has mom than one ship going back and forth to Thailand so have to wonder about timing.
Also that applies to Toyota, could more deliveries have seen it peak above 20,000 deliveries?

What concerns me now is the disruption and shipping delays reverberates for months as those
Ships turn late for next pickup run that probably now misses the short four week February month.

Sorry, between crazy auto correct and very slow connection I’ve had multiple edits.

[smoo]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

No doubt, I just question how much impact these challenges really have and how much is industry spin designed to hold off the inevitible price reductions, an economy as ours, will realise.

1 positive months results, demand is high, dont miss out.
Next month is down...external reasons.

Rinse, repeat.

Ranger is #1 in sales. AFF posters - well deserved, proven it’s best in class.
Hilux is #1 in sales. AFF posters - must be supply problems with Ford, let’s see what the figures are next month.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by smoo

Ranger is #1 in sales. AFF posters - well deserved, proven it’s best in class.
Hilux is #1 in sales. AFF posters - must be supply problems with Ford, let’s see what the figures are next month.

Please supply proof of that being said anywhere in this thread.

You can’t because it’s made up BS

And Ranger was ahead of Hilux…..

1 Toyota RAV4 5076
2 Ford Ranger 4254
3 Toyota HiLux 3302
4 Toyota Prado 2847
5 Mitsubishi Outlander 2090
6 Isuzu D-Max 2086
7 Mazda CX-5 1872
8 Kia Sportage 1826
9 Ford Everest 1679
10 Mazda CX-3 1608

[smoo]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Please supply proof of that being said anywhere in this thread.

You can’t because it’s made up BS

And Ranger was ahead of Hilux…..

1 Toyota RAV4 5076
2 Ford Ranger 4254
3 Toyota HiLux 3302
4 Toyota Prado 2847
5 Mitsubishi Outlander 2090
6 Isuzu D-Max 2086
7 Mazda CX-5 1872
8 Kia Sportage 1826
9 Ford Everest 1679
10 Mazda CX-3 1608

Not in this thread, but I’ve noted it in previous vfact threads.
Aswell when Hilux has been #1, some posters say Ranger is the best selling Ute if we only look at the 4x4 versions.
Just an observation, which can be like walking on egg shells as some posters get a bit precious when their $90k investment isn’t talked about in a positive way.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Please supply proof of that being said anywhere in this thread.

why this thread? it does sound familiar, willing to bet its been said over previous months.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by b0son

why this thread? it does sound familiar, willing to bet its been said over previous months.

Becausae it’s not being said here in this thread, you’re bringing up something
from the past that’s not relevant to the curren t conversation.


Just another case of people derailing a thread with past nonsense.

That is your aim isn’t it?

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by smoo

Not in this thread, but I’ve noted it in previous vfact threads.
Aswell when Hilux has been #1, some posters say Ranger is the best selling Ute if we only look at the 4x4 versions.
Just an observation, which can be like walking on egg shells as some posters get a bit precious when their $90k investment isn’t talked about in a positive way.

Yes, faults both sides in the past but not on this thread excepting you three…

Thanks mate, you’ve completely derailed the thread which was your aim.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Becausae it’s not being said here in this thread, you’re bringing up something
from the past that’s not relevant to the curren t conversation.


Just another case of people derailing a thread with past nonsense.

That is your aim isn’t it?

Its not being said specifically , but it didnt take long for you to post reasons to excuse a further downturn.

Port strikes in January sre more likely to impact Feb results anyway.
They dont drive them off the ship and on to dealer lots you know, yeah?

[b0son]

Yes, its pretty obvious there's a general downturn in sales, the last 3 months of sales shows a clear trend.

[Dr Smith]

I drove past Toyota Altona on 23/1 and the carparks on the eastern side along Grieve Parade were completely full of Hilux utes, just that one area I would estimate held 400 units and I know there are much larger carpark areas on the western side you can't see from outside and obviously will have had other models being held.

On a side note: In case anyone was wondering Port of Melb. is the biggest port in the Southern Hemisphere and handles 9 times the equivalent volume of PoA for example and averages 1000 vehicles per day...so a week of no docking ship means 7000 vehicles floating on the water.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Dr Smith

.

On a side note: In case anyone was wondering Port of Melb. is the biggest port in the Southern Hemisphere and handles 9 times the equivalent volume of PoA for example and averages 1000 vehicles per day...so a week of no docking ship means 7000 vehicles floating on the water.

FYI
For containerization it is.

As the country’s largest port for containerised cargo, the Port of Melbourne handles 79 million tons of cargo

But Newcastle ships the most cargo more than double.

Located in New South Wales, the Port of Newcastle is the largest shipping port on Australia’s eastern coastline. It is responsible for over 167 million tons of cargo each year

Honourable mention goes to Port of Hedland with the highest bulk tonnage.

The Port of Hedland is the world’s largest bulk export port and the biggest port in Australia and the Oceania region. It handles more than 452 million tons of cargo every year

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Its not being said specifically , but it didnt take long for you to post reasons to excuse a further downturn.

Port strikes in January sre more likely to impact Feb results anyway.
They dont drive them off the ship and on to dealer lots you know, yeah?

Anyway,
I thought I was quite even handed in saying that both Ford and Toyota were probably affected to some degree.
Rather than an excuse for one model’s lower delivery number, it was offered as a reason why total January
“monthly sales” in reality may not have actually been lower than last January. We will never know for sure…..

They do clear them from the holding yards very quickly when they want to…..

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by b0son

Yes, its pretty obvious there's a general downturn in sales, the last 3 months of sales shows a clear trend.

Last month deliveries missed January 2024 numbers by 926 vehicles,
How likely is it that a three week stoppage at Melbourne caused that to happen?

But don’t tell the press when they’re continuing a narrative…

I wish they wouldn’t compare January sales against December numbers,
they are always down because of seasonality but again media narrative…..

[jpd80]

Here you go, Ford not affected but Toyota was…

https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-new...s-in-australia

At this stage there is no impact on deliveries of Ford’s most popular models, the top-selling Ranger and Everest, because they are handled by another stevedore company. At the height of the previous supply chain crisis, Ford leased a dedicated vessel to expedite the shipment of these in-demand models.

.

Australia’s biggest auto brand, Toyota, said it was impacted by the issue and hoped to reduce delays for customers.

“Toyota has been affected by the industrial action but is working closely with vessel companies to minimise the delays,” a Toyota Australia spokesperson told CarExpert.

However, the Tosca and Tortugas vessels now carrying Mustangs from North America will be diverted to Melbourne, where they will be subject to quarantine inspection and then ‘transhipped’ back to NSW.

Ford said this and the knock-on effect of similar moves by other carmakers would increase waiting times for the new Mustang.

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Its not being said specifically , but it didnt take long for you to post reasons to excuse a further downturn.

Port strikes in January sre more likely to impact Feb results anyway.
They dont drive them off the ship and on to dealer lots you know, yeah?

Old mate a bit Prickly hey ?

Lol

Don’t sent me any abusive personal messages please.

[whynot]

I think it is a bit of a futile exercise trying to extrapolate one month's sales figures in the best of circumstances. Particularly with the way Ford doles out its manufacturing slots to its dealers.

We placed an order for an Everest Sport in February 2024. The vehicle turned up in December 2024. Ceteris paribus implies that January 2025 deliveries for Everest Sport were set in stone in March 2024. But we know that doesn't tell the full story as the Tremor was announced in August and there was deliveries in December. (Which I am a bit shirty about, as I would have gladly swapped my order for the Sport for the Tremor. But I digress.)

Ranger sales base covers commercial usage as well as business usage. And there are two interesting variants coming down the chute. The first being the Ranger PHEV and the second being the Super Duty. For private sales, we are probably entering the window where some buyers are thinking of delaying their purchase until more information is available about the PHEV. And for the Super Duty, I know of one small fleet that routinely does GMV upgrades on its 4WD that has decided to get another year out of their existing units. At least until the specifications on the Super Duty are a bit clearer.

The other point is that interest rates are really starting to bite (as they are designed to do).

As for the Prado, its sales base has been been suffering from blue ball-joints syndrome for a while now. It will sell in good numbers while the initial backlog is clearing. However, it is the first Toyota that I have ever seen with a inkling of buyers remorse for putting in an order sight unseen. I do think Toyota will quickly sort out these initial niggles, but it has tinted brand perceptions. The Rav4 is going great. As it should, as it is a well engineered vehicle. Also has the advantage of keeping Mazda on their toes.

As a consumer, I am glad to finally see more supply in the market and a bit more financial pressure being applied to manufacturers.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by jpd80

But don’t tell the press when they’re continuing a narrative…

What narrative?

https://newspressaustralia.com/asset...6-5b5e9691ff28

The decline in sales growth arguably began as early as August. That isnt a single month aberration. It's clear the car market is cooling.

[Dr Smith]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

FYI
For containerization it is.

As the country’s largest port for containerised cargo, the Port of Melbourne handles 79 million tons of cargo

But Newcastle ships the most cargo more than double.

Located in New South Wales, the Port of Newcastle is the largest shipping port on Australia’s eastern coastline. It is responsible for over 167 million tons of cargo each year

Honourable mention goes to Port of Hedland with the highest bulk tonnage.

The Port of Hedland is the world’s largest bulk export port and the biggest port in Australia and the Oceania region. It handles more than 452 million tons of cargo every year

Does Newcastle port handle ore and coal?

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by b0son

What narrative?

https://newspressaustralia.com/asset...6-5b5e9691ff28

The decline in sales growth arguably began as early as August. That isnt a single month aberration. It's clear the car market is cooling.

Yes there was a sales decline but the numbers achieved in the second half of the year was still over 600,000
In the light of two record years, some slow down in sales to retail buyers is to be expected but the way the press
is painting this is like some ominous massive slow down is coming - that remains to be seen.


It would be more useful if we could pinpoint where the sales reductions are happening,
perhaps some brands are being affected more than others with regards to the types of vehicles sold.
Those on lower income with reduced ability to meet monthly payments would be the hardest hit,..

Maybe one of the more intellectual beard strokers could enlighten us…..

[DFB FGXR6]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Here you go, Ford not affected but Toyota was…

https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-new...s-in-australia

Further to the Mustang, there are currently hundreds of them sitting in holding yards due to a stop-sale recall that was issued in mid-December. These were supposed to be fixed before Christmas, then first week of January, then mid Jan..........................customers are still waiting 10-days into Feb.

These cars won't be released to dealers until a software update comes through from the US. Also, any of the cars that did get shipped to dealers before the recall, they also can't be sold. Most of these cars are from looooooooong standing orders that were placed more than two years ago.

I'm so glad mine wasn't in the recall, I'd be livid waiting for Ford to pull their finger out and get the recall sorted. Also consider these cars would have been sitting out in the open for up to 6-months now. So, your new car isn't so new after all, jarring considering the price premium S650 brought forward. Ford have no intentions of compensating buyers either.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Here you go, Ford not affected but Toyota was…

https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-new...s-in-australia

.

Yes, I'd heard that and was going to post that Ford landed all its cars and Toyota hadn't but figured the casual diehards would lose their shit and suggest I was trolling.