Australia housing bubble

[Citroënbender]

Where’s the referendum on migration levels?

Most of my skin in the game is from a “boomer” POV; better interest on term deposits. That doesn’t stop me from empathising with people genuinely in a bind from solid rate increases on the back of other near-unforeseen events.

[blueoval]

get ready to see some mortgagee sales come up on the market soon

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

I went out for a hit of golf this morning. The golf course is on a road that is used by many Melbournians to get back home from visiting the south side of the Gippsland Lakes and/or the Ninety Mile beach. Given today was the last day of the unofficial long weekend, there was no surprise to see a number of caravans heading home.

What did surprise me was the number of them. It was a constant stream. And the vast majority (I'd say easily nine out of ten) were all dual axle.

It makes me think that this country is becoming more and more a land of the haves and have nots.

Like you, cb, I feel for those who will be pushed over the edge by this latest increase. More so those who are in this position due to no fault of their own. I have less sympathy for those who over capitalised.

[Syndrome]

https://www.fordforums.com.au/showpo...postcount=2842

Quote function not working for Citroenbender post 2842

The irony is that the left want to give the aboriginals more say and power but at the same time will never seek from these people permission to bring more "invaders" to "their country".

[Polyal]

Ill be stuffed how new car sales are at record highs?

[Itsme]

I'm tipping we will see a recession in the new year.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by Itsme

I'm tipping we will see a recession in the new year.

Same. This rate rise can hardly be blamed on consumers, most of the inflation came from lack of housing supply, oil and energy prices.

Meanwhile, I'm constantly being cold-called by reps (existing suppliers and new) trying to drum up business. Nobody's buying (at least not in manufacturing).

[MITCHAY]

New governor and inflation still high. Unbackable odds

[prydey]

I'm not an economist but how does taking away people's spending money help the economy?

Hospitality must already be stretched pretty thin. So many struggled through covid with many having to close up, and now this.

Many other industries doing it tough with people tightening up on spending.

Is interest rates really the only way to try to achieve what they want? Genuinely curious although I would guess that it's a very complex answer.

[Syndrome]

Originally Posted by prydey

I'm not an economist but how does taking away people's spending money help the economy?

Hospitality must already be stretched pretty thin. So many struggled through covid with many having to close up, and now this.

Many other industries doing it tough with people tightening up on spending.

Is interest rates really the only way to try to achieve what they want? Genuinely curious although I would guess that it's a very complex answer.

In my opinion there are two types of inflation:

(1) Where the economy is overheating due to demand outstripping supply thus causing prices to increase too much and too quickly.

(2) Where government spending is causing debt to rise too quickly and too high thus requiring stimulus, bailouts, subsidies etc and eventually the value of the dollar is reduced thus requiring more of the stuff to purchase the same amount of goods.

What I believe we have is scenario (2) whereas the RBA and government are treating it as scenario (1).

Our company recently announced they are closing the afternoon shift at the end of this month. Even in the depths of the GFC they had enough work to keep two shifts operating.

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Originally Posted by prydey

I'm not an economist but how does taking away people's spending money help the economy?

Hospitality must already be stretched pretty thin. So many struggled through covid with many having to close up, and now this.

Many other industries doing it tough with people tightening up on spending.

Is interest rates really the only way to try to achieve what they want? Genuinely curious although I would guess that it's a very complex answer.

A good question, Rob. I found this to be a good read to help understand the balancing equation.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-...vice/101327530

I recall a story on the ABC radio a few months ago, and the economist being interviewed said there was basically three or four things that could be done to help control inflation. I can't remember the detail, but basically he said all but increasing interest rates were either outside the government's control or for those controllable by the government, no government would make these choices as they would be received negatively by the voting public. As the government has no control over the RBA decisions, all governments were happy to allow the RBA to take the brunt of having to make the tough decisions.

[blueoval]

Can someone tell me if there is a correlation to HOW a government spends tax payer money and how a countries citizens spends their own money when it comes to hyperinflation?

My point is, if we are in such turmoil due to how much we as tax payers spend in the current economy, then why are we as a country send money hand over fist to other countries without question or consideration for its own citizens? Shouldn't the leaders of this country be looking after their own first? Or is it something separate?

We are in a big financial hole as we are reminded by the leaders but it just seems like we are somehow able to afford to keep other war torn countries afloat at the same time.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by blueoval

............... then why are we as a country send money hand over fist to other countries without question or consideration for its own citizens? Shouldn't the leaders of this country be looking after their own first? Or is it something separate?

Very complicated. "Foreign aid" buys influence and favour, and in some cases shows our masters that we are team player.

[ToryMikey]

Originally Posted by blueoval

Can someone tell me if there is a correlation to HOW a government spends tax payer money and how a countries citizens spends their own money when it comes to hyperinflation?

My point is, if we are in such turmoil due to how much we as tax payers spend in the current economy, then why are we as a country send money hand over fist to other countries without question or consideration for its own citizens? Shouldn't the leaders of this country be looking after their own first? Or is it something separate?

We are in a big financial hole as we are reminded by the leaders but it just seems like we are somehow able to afford to keep other war torn countries afloat at the same time.

The thing is, when we run our own households we work hard to earn the money so we’re a bit more careful how we apportion our spending then a government is.

Spend $100 extra this week on groceries? Yeah, the average family is going to feel it. Spend half a billion on a referendum that was always going to fail? Well that’s not really “our” money, that’s the uneducated bogans’ money. And screw them.

This current government thinks taxpayer money materialises out of thin air. Not that the alternative is much better…

[raised by monkeys]

Basically 'giving to get'. Fundamentally sickening that politics play school yard tactics.

[Citroënbender]

I’ve noticed car battery prices firming a little higher than they were six months ago. Not sure whether it’s landed cost going up or importers preserving the life to which they have become accustomed.

[fordomatic]

Up up up

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-...m_content=link

[Citroënbender]

I’m impressed that Ian Verrender seems to get away with saying what you’d think the ABC considered unacceptable - in an adjacent article to your link he’s effectively canvassing the idea of a sharp cutback in migration.

[George V]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

I’m impressed that Ian Verrender seems to get away with saying what you’d think the ABC considered unacceptable - in an adjacent article to your link he’s effectively canvassing the idea of a sharp cutback in migration.

and,

to quote b0son, ...most of the inflation came from lack of housing supply, oil and energy prices...

I wonder what caused these? Were these beyond Govt control or Govt did not want to due to other reasons??? One could argue that there are all self-inflected...

Regards,
George V

[prydey]

What becomes very clear in these situations is that those in the decision making positions aren't the ones being affected by the decisions and haven't been affected by them for some time.

They just say 'we know it's a blunt tool but it's the only one we have'!

They've been well off for so long it's impossible for them to have any kind of empathy.

There are a large percentage of people doing it very tough at the moment, through no fault of their own and these are the ones most impacted by these 'blind' decisions.

The class divide in Australia is real. Those with money look down on those less fortunate and treat them as though it's their own fault for not having better paying jobs. What they fail to realise is that not all jobs can be high paid but someone has to do them.

I realise nothing will change because there's too many snouts in the trough.

Coorporate greed is next level at the moment and yet the plebs get preached to like its their fault for trying to live.

Ridiculous.

[Citroënbender]

The gay nomads were looking for a unit or townhouse near the Wollongong CBD in order to be close for work. They looked literally for weeks - application after application went nowhere.

Then they tried offering equal of a week’s rent in a “brown paper bag” as an incentive. Instantly an application was approved; they then cantilevered off that approval with another agent and a different property (but no paper bag). Again, instant approval and they withdrew their initial application.

I’m not clear on who gets to hold the paper bag, whether the agent splits it or what. But it shows the marketplace as corrupt and stupid. I also know that only one of their referees was ever contacted, and only once at that. So we can probably add “lazy” to the list of agency shortcomings.

Properties the guys viewed in the last week or so, but were “not selected” for, mostly remain on the market if you assume that agencies keep their stock lists current. Perhaps the rental shortage is being made worse by agencies not really doing much?

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

The gay nomads were looking for a unit or townhouse near the Wollongong CBD in order to be close for work. They looked literally for weeks - application after application went nowhere.

Then they tried offering equal of a week’s rent in a “brown paper bag” as an incentive. Instantly an application was approved; they then cantilevered off that approval with another agent and a different property (but no paper bag). Again, instant approval and they withdrew their initial application.

I’m not clear on who gets to hold the paper bag, whether the agent splits it or what. But it shows the marketplace as corrupt and stupid. I also know that only one of their referees was ever contacted, and only once at that. So we can probably add “lazy” to the list of agency shortcomings.

Properties the guys viewed in the last week or so, but were “not selected” for, mostly remain on the market if you assume that agencies keep their stock lists current. Perhaps the rental shortage is being made worse by agencies not really doing much?

And this is the problem facing renters, people bidding up the rents while other simply can not offer more money going through the process.
Soon there will be no Nurses, Cops and Firey's in big cities as they will not able to afford to live there.

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by fordomatic

Up up up

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-...m_content=link

Its coming from a female so its OK now.

Interesting times.

[T3rminator]

US inflation was 0% last month. There are talks US and UK might leave rates alone now, or even start to lower it.

Can people please stop having hair cuts and going to the dentist? And start boycotting shops that are passing on expenses. Seriously.

PS. Tasman leg of lamb is now $7.50 a KG. Thats the new norm price. Check out your local independent stores, veges have fallen through the floor. I wonder where the RBA collect their basket of goods for CPI.

[Citroënbender]

Most recent job started near me, they poured the second floor last week after more than a fortnight of formwork and roughing in. Now into it with wet saw, Kango etc - clearly, someone stuffed up. Formwork looked fairly pro, I’d say the principal contractor is at fault with setout or reading of plans.

So another job that will take up to twice the time it should, due to dodgy licencing and certification; no wonder there’s a shortfall in houses being completed.

[MITCHAY]

Got my notice yesterday they are passing it on so $500/wk from January, was paying $300 odd before it started going up. Happy new year mother****er!

And it's entirely possible we get a new one in a week or so as an extra **** you before the last takes effect

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

Got my notice yesterday they are passing it on so $500/wk from January, was paying $300 odd before it started going up. Happy new year mother****er!

And it's entirely possible we get a new one in a week or so as an extra **** you before the last takes effect

How long ago was the 300? Doesnt ACT have the 10% yearly cap?

I thought I'd be kind to mine, and started it earlier rather than it being a Christmas or new year present

[MITCHAY]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

How long ago was the 300? Doesnt ACT have the 10% yearly cap?

I thought I'd be kind to mine, and started it earlier rather than it being a Christmas or new year present

I meant the bank passed on the rate increase for my mortgage.

[MITCHAY]

It will be interesting what they go with on Tuesday but would expect another hit ahead of Xmas season if they really want to lock **** down. The problem is the actuals lag the decisions and forecasts by a massive margin.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

It will be interesting what they go with on Tuesday but would expect another hit ahead of Xmas season if they really want to lock **** down. The problem is the actuals lag the decisions and forecasts by a massive margin.

Would be surprised if they raise. OECD have come out with a surprising statement that they see rate rises in AU as having ended, and might even start to drop Q3 of next year. I wonder if Jimmy made a phone call to old mate Mathias to try put some pressure on the RBA