Covid 19 -

[HIPO]

You gotta love how there's no point in taking big Pharma to court over many of these "things", as they've been given a free pass by bent politicians.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by HIPO

You gotta love how there's no point in taking big Pharma to court over many of these "things", as they've been given a free pass by bent politicians.

Bayer $15.9b settlement. J&J $4.7b settlement.

AstraZeneca looking for legal exemptions for the CV19 vaccine. Someone here indicated its normal practice in the US.

[cheap]

Victoria: Average Weekly New C19 cases (July 2020)

Week 1: 01 to 07 Average of 102 new cases per day
Week 2: 08 to 14 Average of 218 new cases per day
Week 3: 15 to 21 Average of 316 new cases per day
Week 4: 22 to 28 Average of 418 new cases per day
Week 5: 29 to 02 Average of 543 new cases per day

C19 isn't slowing down, Stage 4 is certain.

[FPV8U]

Just put them in a hotel with police who are actually qualified to do the job and there won’t be an issue.

No different to the compound setup they had at the high density housing a few weeks back.

It does speak volumes that the states and indeed the country appear to have no established infrastructure to deal with this kind of quarantine situation, something that needs to be fixed once we move past the current virus.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by FPV8U

Just put them in a hotel with police who are actually qualified to do the job and there won’t be an issue.

No different to the compound setup they had at the high density housing a few weeks back.

It does speak volumes that the states and indeed the country appear to have no established infrastructure to deal with this kind of quarantine situation, something that needs to be fixed once we move past the current virus.

To be fair, only 1 state currently seems to have an issue. Cases popping up in other states can largely be traced back to that one state as well.

Other states used similar strategies for quarantining returning australians.

There must be some other underlying issue as to why Victoria (Melbourne) have failed to get the virus under control. I don't think it is a second wave either as the virus was never fully under control, so its just a continuation of the original outbreak.

Yes, Melbourne takes a fair percentage of international air travel. Is this really the reason though? There are still passengers returning from overseas to most other states yet not resulting in the situation we see in Melbourne.

Is it the diverse culture of the population? Who knows.

Is it the fact that many in Melbourne feel overly 'oppressed' and just a general lack of respect for authority? I must admit i don't do social media at all but i don't tend to hear of too many groups promoting civil disobedience to the same degree as Melbourne. Maybe thats just a case of selective reporting though?

Whatever the reason, the fact is, other states have handled the situation fairly well. I would say the vast majority of problems comes down to individual behaviour and mindset. I can only comment on SA as thats where i live, but going back a few months to when it all started, compliance was pretty good. I have been fortunate enough to keep my job (albeit 20% reduced hours and money) and whilst cycling to and from work, it was dead out and about. Yes, our population is substantially smaller and less dense, as is the size of the metro area, but i think compliance is at the root of it all.

I see it as a cop out to blame authority or poorly trained staff. Most individuals knew what they 'should' be doing and not doing.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by prydey

To be fair, only 1 state currently seems to have an issue. Cases popping up in other states can largely be traced back to that one state as well.

Other states used similar strategies for quarantining returning australians.

There must be some other underlying issue as to why Victoria (Melbourne) have failed to get the virus under control. I don't think it is a second wave either as the virus was never fully under control, so its just a continuation of the original outbreak.

Yes, Melbourne takes a fair percentage of international air travel. Is this really the reason though? There are still passengers returning from overseas to most other states yet not resulting in the situation we see in Melbourne.

Is it the diverse culture of the population? Who knows.

Is it the fact that many in Melbourne feel overly 'oppressed' and just a general lack of respect for authority? I must admit i don't do social media at all but i don't tend to hear of too many groups promoting civil disobedience to the same degree as Melbourne. Maybe thats just a case of selective reporting though?

Whatever the reason, the fact is, other states have handled the situation fairly well. I would say the vast majority of problems comes down to individual behaviour and mindset. I can only comment on SA as thats where i live, but going back a few months to when it all started, compliance was pretty good. I have been fortunate enough to keep my job (albeit 20% reduced hours and money) and whilst cycling to and from work, it was dead out and about. Yes, our population is substantially smaller and less dense, as is the size of the metro area, but i think compliance is at the root of it all.

I see it as a cop out to blame authority or poorly trained staff. Most individuals knew what they 'should' be doing and not doing.

It's obvious, look at the post codes with the most cases and where the community transmission is occuring.

I've covered it before but it's to do with Melbourne being divided up into ethnic communities with their own micro economies - it's a view if you aren't part of our community than you can get ****ed, my grandparents think exactly the same about the pandemic, they don't see the government as being able to dictate to them how to live their lives.

It's not one particular ethnicity that's the problem, it's mismanagement of helping migrants fit into Melbourne society, they mismanaged it from the 1940s when my grandparents migrated here and they've mismanaged it with the Sudanese they dumped here in the mid 00s and everything in between over the past 80 years.

It's more prominent in Melbourne because it's the most monocultural city in the nation - North West, West and parts of the South East.

Originally Posted by Sprintey

But they looked like legit businesses in the malls... I give random people way too much credit... God only knows what the nail places were then, all the chemicals there...

Edit: surf trip with the lads gets to the Gold Coast... we notice every shop front on the highway seems to be a tattoo parlour, a massage place, or dog grooming. One of the boys notices a tattoo removal place and declares the operator a genius. That's what an economy looks like when you have no economy.

Imagine living in Melbourne when it's economy is built around art, culture and hospitality and then you have a pandemic and the government forces closed all the art, culture and hospitality businesses

Remember when we actually made things other than food and fancy coffee? Now it's a service economy servicing nothing.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

It's obvious, look at the post codes with the most cases and where the community transmission is occuring.

I've covered it before but it's to do with Melbourne being divided up into ethnic communities with their own micro economies - it's a view if you aren't part of our community than you can get ****ed, my grandparents think exactly the same about the pandemic, they don't see the government as being able to dictate to them how to live their lives.

It's not one particular ethnicity that's the problem, it's mismanagement of helping migrants fit into Melbourne society, they mismanaged it from the 1940s when my grandparents migrated here and they've mismanaged it with the Sudanese they dumped here in the mid 00s and everything in between over the past 80 years.

It's more prominent in Melbourne because it's the most monocultural city in the nation - North West, West and parts of the South East.



Imagine living in Melbourne when it's economy is built around art, culture and hospitality and then you have a pandemic and the government forces closed all the art, culture and hospitality businesses

Surely other cities also have groups of the same ethnicity?

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by prydey

Surely other cities also have groups of the same ethnicity?

Yes but not in the same numbers as Melbourne and not concentrated around certain council regions or suburbs, we're the fastest growing capital city and expected to overtake Sydney in population by 2026 - nearly 40% of our population was born overseas.

[Sprintey]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Imagine living in Melbourne when it's economy is built around art, culture and hospitality and then you have a pandemic and the government forces closed all the art, culture and hospitality businesses

Remember when we actually made things other than food and fancy coffee? Now it's a service economy servicing nothing.

Yeah that leaves you with upgrayedd the pimp... In past travels to the city in the 2000's I loved the idea that you had almost every kind of venue, pubs for bookish people even, it was and is a place where you can experience quite a variety of these things. But all this should be founded on a healhty, productive, value-adding society.

So for eg, I don't think the lockdown is such a terrible thing here just outside Melbourne, have been taking it seriously, and it's more of a case of "what can I build and create in this time?" In some ways it's a blessing, going to come out of this with some sweet tech and small scale manufacturing capability, and there'd be no way I'd have the time and focus with work ongoing, if this hadn't happened. Hope we can get the transmission levels down and get on top of it. Imagine a Victoria that has all the amazing dining and cultural attractions, but is an absolute manufacturing powerhouse because so many of us had shed time in the lockdown!

[cheap]

Not sure if Dan has communicated this yet, but this is the likely schedule:

Given that the current outbreak is totally out of control, then 6-8 weeks level 4 restrictions to hopefully bring C19 under control (August + September)

Then it will level 3 and level 2, with a gradual easing of restrictions (October + November).

Some semblance of normality sometime in December.

Of course, there is a high probability of another stuff-up in which case ... BOHICA !

[FPV8U]

Originally Posted by prydey

I see it as a cop out to blame authority or poorly trained staff. Most individuals knew what they 'should' be doing and not doing.

Can’t disagree that those in there should have done the right thing, that goes without saying.

All in all it doesn’t matter now, how it could have been done or what those in quarantine should have done, we now (In Victoria) all get to embrace the result of the decisions made.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by FPV8U

Can’t disagree that those in there should have done the right thing, that goes without saying.

All in all it doesn’t matter now, how it could have been done or what those in quarantine should have done, we now (In Victoria) all get to embrace the result of the decisions made.

found this on another forum...

Victorians have a right to be angry, but maybe just think about where that anger is directed first...

[Tickford.]

State of 'Disaster' declared in Victoria from 6pm tonight.

Stage 4 restrictions introduced in metro Melbourne.

Curfew for Melbourne from 8pm to 5am starting today.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-...-rise/12515914

[Fed]

"I say we take off and nuke the entire site from orbit. It's the only way to be sure."

[russellw]

Time for some graphs:

First up are three of the countries that got hit badly early in the piece: Spain, UK and Italy.



Spain looks to be having a fairly sustained second wave although not at the same level as the first one while the UK and Italy look to be fairly steady at a much lower level than their peak.

Next are two more countries that got hit badly early in the piece but which continue to get worse: Brazil and the USA.



Next are some countries that we've been watching - these graphs are since the outbreak started and based on cases per 100k of population to show how each country has progressed through the duration:

1. Countries that have more than 20 cases / 100k - Chile, Ukraine, Brazil & Panama. Chile started slower than the other two but peaked earlier before declining steeply and largely continuing to do so while both Panama, Brazil and the Ukraine have continued to climb and probably haven't yet peaked.



2. Countries that have more than 15-20 cases / 100k - Peru, Moldova, Dominican Republic & the USA. Peru peaked back in early June but now looks to be having a second wave that is just as bad. Moldova looks to be doing much the same while neither the USA or Dominican Republic look to have actually peaked yet.



3. Countries that have more than 10-15 cases / 100k - Russia, Belarus, Guatemala, Saudi Arabia & the Honduras. Russia has been in a very steady decline since peaking in late May while Belarus had declined more steeply and even Saudi Arabia now looks to be heading the right way after a mid-June peak. Not so good news for Honduras and Guatemala although they may well have peaked about 10 days ago.



4. Countries that have more than 2-10 cases / 100k - Mexico, UK, Sweden, El Salvador, India & Czechia. While Sweden didn't peak until the end of June, the belated introduction of tough restrictions has seen a rapid decline in case numbers. The UK has been in decline since a peak in early May but it's been gradual while the rest continue to climb albeit slowly except for El Salvador and India which have ramped up quite steeply.



5. Finally those countries with less than 2 cases / 100k - Canada, Italy and Spain all of which had been trending downward since their early May peaks although Canada and Spain are showing a slight upward trend over the most recent two weeks.



We can see this data a bit better in the polynomial trend lines. Starting with Asia, this first lot are all what you'd want to see - a rising curve to a peak followed by a continuing downward line and Pakistan has seen the best reduction by a significant amount.



This next group only has Iran and Qatar showing that same shaped trend-line with Qatar showing a major drop to almost nothing. Conversely; Iraq, Indonesia and Kazakhstan continue to rise and likely haven't peaked yet while Turkey had been doing really well since their very early peak but it's started to climb again, albeit slowly.



This next group have all reached their peak and are in decline except Singapore which is clearly having a second wave. Nepal and Afghanistan are down to almost nothing while Kuwait has been pretty flat since an early June peak.



The final set of charts are for African countries and their new case numbers with only Nigeria, Ivory Coast and Sudan actually showing any improvement while the rest continue to climb, some steeply.

[PhilT2]

"Victoria- The education state" now becomes "Victoria-State of Disaster"
Not sure if it will catch on.

[roKWiz]

Find it very odd that not one Aussie capital city BLM protest was directly related to this, would make any normal person question how is that so.

[XR Martin]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

Find it very odd that not one Aussie capital city BLM protest was directly related to this, would make any normal person question how is that so.

It appears most community transmission occurs indoors.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by XR Martin

It appears most community transmission occurs indoors.

So why do they want everyone to wear masks outside in the middle of nowhere ?

[Work Horse]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

So why do they want everyone to wear masks outside in the middle of nowhere ?

Yes if I am gardening in someone’s back yard alone no one is at risk.

I understand masks may help a bit in situations where keeping your distance is difficult and we were asked to use masks in those situations.

Numbers are not coming down in Victoria.

Knowing when and where the right time to wear a mask would be so confusing to mandate/police I think the only way to do it is how we are.

I drop my mask when working in a back yard alone no one is going to fine me, commonsense should prevail.

[MITCHAY]

Well I wish everyone in Vic the best of luck. Going to be a rough 6 weeks so hopefully it will achieve the result we all need.

[CoupeKing]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

Well I wish everyone in Vic the best of luck. Going to be a rough 6 weeks so hopefully it will achieve the result we all need.

I don't need luck. I'll just wait for the vaccine for something that has a 99% recovery rate pushed by a creeper.

Originally Posted by CoupeKing

I don't need luck. I'll just wait for the vaccine for something that has a 99% recovery rate pushed by a creeper.

Where do you get the idea that it's a 99% recovery rate? Have you seen the opinions coming from overseas that lots of people with mild symptoms are still showing abnormal findings when tests were run on their heart? Lots of "recovered" people are going to end up with permanent health issues from this and the official scientifically-confirmed data isn't going to come out for a while so anecdotal evidence is all we have, but it's there.

[Jack91]

Note to anyone else with a bushy beard- fabric masks dont fit.
They go on, but move around while i am complaining and ranting to the mrs about the colour. The hair under the chin is too majestic and bushy to be compressed by the crappy elastic.
The only disposable ones that do are the high end 3m ones with 2 straps. Expensive and hard to get.

I put a new filter in the old sundstrom respirator. Looks like me and it are gonna get really well acquainted again over the next few weeks.

[Tickford.]

Mr Andrews said the changes being announced today were about how Victorians lived their lives, but more changes would be announced on Monday about restrictions on workplaces.

He said there would be three categories of industries — some would continue to operate as normal, some businesses would have reduced output and therefore have fewer hours and staff, while others would close completely.

He said deciding which businesses were reduced was "quite a complex task" given Victoria had the biggest container port in the country.

"There are very detailed supply chains, there is a good deal of complexity to this issue, it is better to take a little bit longer to get it right," he said.

Changes to workplaces will not come into effect until Wednesday at the earliest, so there is "a little bit more time" to consult and try to get the restrictions right, he said.

So come Wednesday, which businesses will be affected do you think?

Apart from the food suppliers / supermarkets, etc, which others will be allowed to stay open? Which will have to be shut down completely?

Driving past Bunning at about 4pm today, the line was massive. Will Bunnings be allowed to stay open?

[XR Martin]

Well the stage 4 restrictions in NZ bunnings was only open for trade customers or essential workers.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Tickford.

So come Wednesday, which businesses will be affected do you think?

Apart from the food suppliers / supermarkets, etc, which others will be allowed to stay open? Which will have to be shut down completely?

Driving past Bunning at about 4pm today, the line was massive. Will Bunnings be allowed to stay open?

Im guessing anything that's part of supply chain or repair of transport industry will be deemed essential and will be business as usual.

General retail will close and move to online only business model

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Im guessing anything that's part of supply chain or repair of transport industry will be deemed essential and will be business as usual.

General retail will close and move to online only business model

Yes, regional wise it should be the same as back in March/April.
As long as bakeries are open we will always have cake.

[russellw]

641 new cases for Australia and 7 deaths sees the CMR drop to 1.161% and active cases rise to 7,295. NSW recorded 12; Queensland, WA and the NT recorded 1; WA recorded 2, with the balance in Victoria. The case numbers for Victoria were the 2nd highest recorded to date.

3 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.406% and active cases rise to 25.

The UK recorded 743 new cases and 8 deaths yesterday so the CMR drops to 15.163%.

Just over 58k new cases in the USA yesterday and 1,151 deaths sees CMR down to 3.314% and active cases at 47.1% with the raw numbers still rising. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 18M with the latest 1M only taking 3 days to add;
Africa passes 20k deaths;

Venezuela (869), Philippines (5,032), Mexico (9,556) and Colombia (11,470) all recorded new daily highs, those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

[russellw]

The graph for today: