Economy Downturn !!!!

[gtfpv]

IT seems we are just starting to see the BEGINNING of the economic downturn . companies are now starting to fold and dismiss /or massively reduce its staffing . it is forecasted that wwe will have 10% unemployment in this country by the end of 2009. with no recovery expectation before the end of 2010. the sad part is . only now is the start of the number crunching . i am in an industry that feels the effects immensly which allows me to see what is happening in the world, and the flow on effects are hard to think about , it is mostly out of australia's hands.

i know similar threads have been posted here in the past . this is an update to current situations for people to share what they areexpecting/ or how they will be/ are effected . IT IS NOT POLITICALLY ORIENTATED. ( no finger pointing or blaming)
WHAT IS HAPPENING OUT THERE TO YOU OR YOUR FRIENDS/ FAMILY ????

WITH ME my job for life is now under threat the outcome isnt to bad for me , however i may have to not lease or buy a new vehicle , which directly effects the car industry therefore the economy .

[The Monty]

Im fine. I cut meat for 20 odd Woolworths stores, and we have never been busier, BUT, we had a few people leave lately, and we have been told they wont be replaced. We have our workplace divided, half doing pubs and restausants, and our side doing Woolworths. The Food service (pubs) side, is failing bad, the Woolworths meat side, excelent.
My mother is a propigator, making media and a supervisor, and her whole workplace has been put back to 4 days.

[ZA-289]

Yeah i lost my job 6 weeks ago, (automotive) dam hard to find anything decent within an hour from home. Looks like I will have to do some cruddy job or work far away from home just to get some work coz the funds are drying up :(

[U TRYD]

I own a concrete truck on the gold coast. We have been slow since December also partly because the weather, but nothing that bad yet we are still ticking over. The good news though is that we are alredy starting to pick back up again and all of the builders/developers that i have been talking to are starting to become alot more confident and alot have work coming up. I am lucky in that where i work we do mostly industrial and comercial work that started before the GFC hit and that has kept us going and should see us through the worst of it. I even considering buying a brand new truck and taking advantige if the 30% depreciation i can claim. It is a once in a lifetime opertunity. From what i have herd and seen on the job it will be over by the end of the year

[Road_Warrior]

Public service here, I am unaffected. In fact, in my line of work, business is booming.

However the two FTE's in my section that they had intended to advertise may not go ahead. Being a government department the Treasurer has demanded that we find 3% budget savings and we have done that by axing a couple of online/software related projects, but I do not know what will happen to the FTE's.

[Iggypoppin']

My employment is in timber and it's the worst we've seen in 50 years. All the overtime gone, bugger all tradies coming in compared to last year. Big accounts getting slashed. We are lucky it's a family owned business, and they have guaranteed that while hours get cut, jobs will not. There was boom years for a long time and we are still JUST profitable so everythings ok for now.

[Scott]

I've had clients laying off staff in the thousands, major projects delayed or scrapped alltogether. In saying that, I still have a healthy pipeline and good base for organic growth so my target for the year is to try and hold ground at minimum.

Many of my partners are also just focussed on hitting what they did last year if possible, no plans for great expansion as we have seen in years gone by. They will not look to grow or shrink their workforce but I expect they won't be busting to replace anyone that leaves either.

QLD is reasonably insulated from the "low lows' that I think most of Australia has/will be seeing. The only bonus in part of this is that the southern states have been in a relative recession for some time and many people already had tight belts before this hit.

Provided people get on with business, I can't see this being *too* bad for us, certainly not like O/S. Good times will return soon and hopefully they bring a new maturity to how we manage our affairs.

Remember people, if the bills are paid, there's food on the table and beer in the fridge, things are pretty bloody good.

[Walt Kowalski]

Me: Self funded retriree: Income cut by at least 60% by GFC. Watching pennies. If I don't have to buy it I am not atm. Just cancelled order for new home on spare block of land.

Wife: Casual teacher looking for full time job (I'm not a slave driver. She is in her 30's and wants to work

Daughter 1 27yo 2 kids: Retrenched this week from Telstra. Might use payout as deposit for home.

Daughter 2. 25 yo Treats people for cancer in a hospital. Unfortunately business is booming. Her job safe. Looking to buy first home in next couple of years. Doesn't want to listen to dads ideas to get one earlier. What would he know? Only made all his $$$ from property investments. The last one went up over 700% in less than 3 years.

[Bmobile]

In the building industry as a painter and have not worked since mid December. I have not been looking too hard but still looking. I am taking the oportunity to change direction and get out of painting. I am currently in the process of going for my HR truck licence and doing my LS bobcat ticket. I have just scored a job with the counciil doing roadside cleanup and am using this as a foot in the door for other positions in the council. I was offered a job today for a few weeks painting to view to full time and I turned it down.
Where I am on the Sunshine Coast the unemployment is around 10% as opposed to around 5% for the national average. Also the building approvals have decreased 50% this quater here.
In the last month I have seen an increase of available positions in all areas and have even had a few short term offers for work.
My job with the council is for at least 6 months and if all goes well I will try to get another position in another feild with them. If not it will be Sep / Oct and the building industry will start to boom with the lead up to Xmas. This will be the time to get out with my HR and LS ticket and try get some work in that feild.

I will call this plan "A"

[Peuty]

Originally Posted by Munroman

Me: Self funded retriree: Income cut by at least 60% by GFC. Watching pennies. If I don't have to buy it I am not atm. Just cancelled order for new home on spare block of land.

Wife: Casual teacher looking for full time job (I'm not a slave driver. She is in her 30's and wants to work

Daughter 1 27yo 2 kids: Retrenched this week from Telstra. Might use payout as deposit for home.

Daughter 2. 25 yo Treats people for cancer in a hospital. Unfortunately business is booming. Her job safe. Looking to buy first home in next couple of years. Doesn't want to listen to dads ideas to get one earlier. What would he know? Only made all his $$$ from property investments. The last one went up over 700% in less than 3 years.

Pics of daughters?

[gtfpv]

Originally Posted by Peuty

Pics of daughters?

and wife . hahahaha .

[Scott]

Originally Posted by gtfpv

and wife . hahahaha .

I'll take a gander at the ute

[Yellow_Festiva]

Working on a term by term full time stint as a school teacher. I have just been signed up till the end of the year so I'm happy about that.

I also have an online business that has had strong sales till Dec last year. I'm now lucky to get a sale a week. Lucky the business doesn't pay the bills and feed me.

[T3ts50]

Im in banking and we have been absolutely flat out the last 2 months. We have had more work come in the last 2 months than we have had from the previous 5 months put together. But it isnt stopping my work from retrenching 400 people in the next month or so. This is espicially scary for me as I have just purchased a new house which doesnt settle until around the time we get told if we still have a job or not.

[madmelon]

After completing work experience I was going to be retained at a small engineering firm in Wollongong. 3 weeks before my hours were completed, Bluescope steel pulled the pin on every one of their "unnecessary" contracted projects. Those three weeks I more or less did nothing and literally the minute I completed my required hours I was out the door. December '08. Fortunately I also work part time at Repco and while it hasn't exactly been busy, the two stores I work at are so short staffed that there is always work for me.

I ended up applying for and being accepted into part time post graduate study.

My mum is a teacher and her job is more or less safe. Dad and step mum own a small business- clinical psychology. They are booked up more than 6 weeks in advance- the GFC is doing their business a world of good. Sister works in child care and that's stupidly busy.

Bro got made redundant late '08, 2 months into the 4th year of his apprenticeship. He was well angry. As someone who doesn't drive, he's not yet found a suitable job.

[gtfpv]

i forgot to add , last year my hours of work were increased , prompting me to give up my private business, which i dont regret at all. however now my overtime is been canned and staff is being cut .
my wife has taken a pay cut . because she works part time , she cannot get extra hours . part time and casual jobs are being traded off to retain fulltime positions . which puts mothers in a hard position as they can only get fulltime work_ or nothing . which must be effecting the economy hugely.

[buggerlugs]

The last 5 years in my small business has been crazy. This financial year started off even crazier. July, August, Sept and October huge. Then right at the end of October it was like someone turned the tap off. Just stopped. March picked up a bit and the talk around the traps is that it will pick up a bit after the financial year ends......

[Walt Kowalski]

What? Nobody interested in a race car (Its VERY fast) or a really cool BMW convertible sunday cruiser??

[Clint Eastwood]

After listening to Paul Keating on the 7:30 report tonight,we are stuffed.

I am a small business owner/self employed tradesperson who specialises in domestic/maintenance work and we are still very busy at the moment,but some days not one job will come in,hopefully not a sign of things to come.

[Road_Warrior]

Originally Posted by Clint Eastwood

After listening to Paul Keating on the 7:30 report tonight,we are stuffed.

Which clown gave that ******** access to a microphone? Horrible man.

[Clint Eastwood]

Originally Posted by Road_Warrior

Which clown gave that ******** access to a microphone? Horrible man.

Well what channel is the 7:30 report on and who is the host?

[Sam_Boss260]

So what did Keating say?

I'm working full time during the week and a second job on weekends, as we have our bonuses frozen at work. 8 people laid off just before Xmas and everything is tight at work, and at home.

You gotta do what you gotta do. I feel for those who have lost their jobs.

[Clint Eastwood]

Originally Posted by Sam_Boss260

So what did Keating say?

Basically that unless some serious decisions are made at the G20 and that unless things are addressed where the problems started (America) we are headed for a very deep world recession and possibly a depression.

The interview will be on the ABC website.

[Daymoe]

So we are entering recession then? I heard Julia Gillard say "We are entering a period of negative growth." doesn't "Period of negative growth" mean recession? Why go through all the bother when you could have just said, we're going into recession?

[bd737]

Lucky I'm in Perth, will definitely watch to hear what he has to say in 30 minutes time. He has experience on the matter, that's for sure.

[Mark351]

My company let quite a few go recently, including one in my team I had a hand in retrenching, not a pleasant experience.

On the flip side, we recently renovated our bathroom/ensuite. The builder, plasterers, tilers and painters are all extremely busy, maybe the plumbers/sparkies not as much but still have work. We have some extra painting to do and we can't get him back for 6-8 weeks he has so much on.

[Clint Eastwood]

Originally Posted by Daymoe

So we are entering recession then? I heard Julia Gillard say "We are entering a period of negative growth." doesn't "Period of negative growth" mean recession? Why go through all the bother when you could have just said, we're going into recession?

Two quarters of negative growth is the technical term for a recession,but yes we are heading into a recession.

[Scott]

First link is Realplayer, second is Media Player.

rtsp://media1.abc.net.au/reallibrary/730report/200904/20090402-730-keating_16_9_bband.rm

http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200904/r356324_1639421.asx

Transcript
KERRY O'BRIEN, PRESENTER: The G20 leaders summit representing 85 per cent of the global economy is now under way in London and expectations have been raised that success or failure around the table over the next few hours could fan the flames of crisis or provide a crucial part of the solution.

The leaders are striving to resolve differences over more concerted stimulus measures around the world, to agree on a new regulatory regime for the global financial system, and give a much stronger voice to countries like China and India, who have been more out than in the world's most powerful economic forums.

Former Australian prime minister Paul Keating argues the right outcomes at the G-20 will have a profound impact on confidence, but that US President Barack Obama has his own challenge to break away from the Wall Street culture that's permeated the ranks of his own advisors.

I spoke with Paul Keating in Sydney earlier tonight.

Paul Keating, does the G20 really have the capacity to save the world from economic catastrophe? Is the world facing economic catastrophe? Is it that bad?

PAUL KEATING: It has the capacity to do that. Whether or not a consensus will emerge to do some of these things, I'm not sure.

There are two issues to deal with simultaneously, Kerry. One, as the private sector decided to save not spend, and as we've seen private sector deleveraging, that is, people paying off mortgages, pulling back; then the public sector's had to move in to hold up aggregate demand. This is why the Prime Minister and the Treasurer here have listed a stimulus and fiscal policy correctly. That's problem one.

Problem two is how - if the public sector can stand in and hold the game together, albeit in the medium term, or the intermediate term; how do we get the banks rolling against to lend?

So there's the two problems. The G20 can certainly deal with the first problem, they can agree on a fiscal stimulus worldwide if the Europeans will be in that. Certainly Australia, US, Britain, et cetera, will, but the banking system is more US centric than it is world centric. Let's stay more US and European centric. You know, at that stage and at this stage of that, we're not seeing the kind of progress we ought to see.

KERRY O'BRIEN: Well, I guess that's one of the questions. I mean, the global financial crisis started with America and spread to Europe, one assumes it surely has to be resolved in America and then in Europe?

PAUL KEATING: Yes.

KERRY O'BRIEN: Can the G20 tell America what it has to do on that front, that it's not doing, to get its banking system in order, and functioning and getting the money out flowing through the American economy just for a start?

PAUL KEATING: Well, I think it can, and I think President Barack Obama, to be fair to him, has said, "I'm there to listen." I think - a friend of mine said to me yesterday, "You know, when the electricity strike was on in Sydney recently, all the lights were out, everyone was urgently calling Energy Australia, everyone wanted the power back on." But when a bank decides not to lend, you don't have that sense of public urgency, but nevertheless the cogs are grinding to a halt in the real economy out there.

Now, the problem with the Americans is this: that they have a great body of large, systematic banks which are barely solvent or may be insolvent. They have to decide which are insolvent and shut them, and for those that are solvent, take them over and recapitalise them.

KERRY O'BRIEN: Well, you wrote in the 'London Financial Times' on March 4 that the question is whether President Obama will recognise the opportunity of this G20 or whether, ..."the advice of old advisors will keep him and the rest of us in the current economic and strategic rut." That's your question.

PAUL KEATING: That's the question.

KERRY O'BRIEN: What's your answer? Does he have the necessary toughness to bite a bullet that those around might be telling him he doesn't need to bite?

PAUL KEATING: No one wants to be - you see, the trouble about Governments, no one wants to be the executioner. No one wants to go in and lop their heads off at these banks. But to give the President his due, he's done that very thing to Rick Wagoner at General Motors this last week. Right after 10 years of Wagoner running GM into the ground and with a Federal bailout, the President has finally said, "Gone".

Unfortunately it took the President to do it. It should have been done by the commerce secretary, it should have been done some time ago. Now, maybe Barack Obama has the bottle to knock the heads off Citibank and some of the others.

KERRY O'BRIEN: But he's got around him as his key advisors, when you talk about the old advisors, I wonder whether in part you're referring to Larry Summers and to that matter, to his Secretary of Treasury, Tim Geitner? Because their background is very much steeped in the culture of Wall Street, as was Hank Paulson's with President Bush, as was Robert Rubin with Bill Clinton?

PAUL KEATING: Indeed. Nobody wants to have in their CV in the upper echelons of the American economic family that they nationalised major banks.

KERRY O'BRIEN: And you believe that's what has to happen?

PAUL KEATING: Well, I think it has to happen, Kerry, because in the end if there's no shareholder capital - and let's take Citibank - there probably isn't any shareholder capital left. So what sort of ruse, who sort of foe game is it that we've have an old board, old management, old loans, and we're to spend American public money after the old loans, rather than axing the management and recapitalising the banks so it's lending tomorrow. Now if it lends tomorrow, the other big banks have got to lend too otherwise they start losing market share.

KERRY O'BRIEN: So, do you believe that it is one fundamental test for President Obama, that he has to move to at least temporarily nationalise one or more of these big banks that you say are either nearly insolvent or perhaps even insolvent?

PAUL KEATING: Why should we be actually selling toxic assets out of a bank which has had it? You see? So someone's got to go in and put the bullet through them. Now, who's it going to be? I don't know whether Larry or Tim, both whom I know, I don't know whether they're up to it or whether they want to do it. But, you see, the old Clinton gang, they always wanted to get on with the top end of town in Wall Street.

KERRY O'BRIEN: You weren't too bad with the top end of town in Australia.

PAUL KEATING: No, but what I did when the banks were in trouble in '91, you know, I put the screws on the ANZ and Westpac. And they're on their feet today because of that treatment.

KERRY O'BRIEN: Aren't you puzzled that Barack Obama, with all of the things he has promised, has surrounded himself precisely with that same advice? Wasn't that advice that was a part of the problem?

PAUL KEATING: That's the old Democratic Party establishment. Have we got a Government for you," that's what they've said to him. And he may have said, "Alright, I'll give it a try". But will he keep them?

KERRY O'BRIEN: That's a very big question. What immediate difference will it make to the global economic crisis of - terms of whether the G20 really does have the capacity to make a difference - what immediate difference would it make to the global economic crisis if the G20 becomes a permanent institution for dialogue and the G7 or G8 goes out the window?

PAUL KEATING: The G7 is a dead show, It finished the day the wall came down and China started to rise to pre-eminence as a big power. The G7, just a European centric show, an Atlantic show, is fundamentally finished. The most important thing about the G20 is its actually happening. And the most important institutional thing is it goes on to happen.

If it does, it will ringbark the G7 and it will die on the vine. But the fact that all the creditor states and the debtor states, and the left out states - continental Africa, South America are there - means for the first time we have a representative world body, and I'm very pleased that that Kevin Rudd has been working with might and main with the President, Gordon Brown and others to make this G20 mean something.

KERRY O'BRIEN: Without being irresponsible about it, do you think there is yet a real possibility that the world could face depression. Is that a part of the risk?

PAUL KEATING: Well, the real risk is the US financial and banking system. In the end, the fiscal stimulus can, in the intermediate term, hold the game somewhat together. The US is still going to contract 4 per cent this year. It will - fiscal policy cannot keep the American economy up and going. It has to be off the back of those banks. And so, therefore, the banking crisis is a crisis of urgency which threatens the motor economy of the world.

And if the motor economy of the world doesn't get back to a reasonable rate of growth and pull everyone else with it, we’re going to have a very - what will happen, Kerry, we'll have a longer recession, assets will fall further in value, this wipes out more capital in banks. Then they'll have to be recapitalised again, but by whom?

You know, then it goes on further. People get gloomier, assets fall further, more institutions fail. So what you end up with is a long depression, a long recession, and you say, will it be a depression.? Well, nobody can - having never lived through the Depression, I can't say so. But at least we have to get this one. We have to get on to the banks now and not worry about the old Wall Street culture.

KERRY O'BRIEN: What is the risk if the sober assessment of this G20 is that it has failed, that it has not come up with substantial decisions in line with the expectations that have been created.

PAUL KEATING: Well, I think you'll see big market reactions to that. I mean, and as I say, those market reactions will make - let's say the ones, you know, the good mortgages have a default rate of less than 1 per cent. The ones that have gotten, you know, 20 per cent deposit, and proper earnings to support them, right? But they're getting pushed down by 30 40 per cent.

So what happens, the bank's board are then saying, "Oh, we'll have to recapitalise ourselves, you know?

So then they have an issue at a lower price that kills the share price for the shareholders. Then the Government turns up and tips some money in. You see, so the game is a diminishing game, a game of diminishing returns. The Japanese took eight years before they put in any recapitalised money into banks. Foolishly. The Americans are at least doing in year one. But nobody's got the bazooka, and no one wants to fire the rockets.

KERRY O'BRIEN: Paul Keating, thanks for talking to us.

PAUL KEATING: Thank you, Kerry.

[XD 351 Ute]

We're supposed to be turning our clinker kiln off for the first time ever in September, due to a lack of orders.
Our on-site contractors will all be gone by end of month, all our hired vehicles are gone as of now, and vacancies are not being filled as people leave, etc...

It will be interesting to see what happens, so I'm flat out trying to pay a bit into the house loan and save for a rainy day....

Ed

[buggerlugs]

Saw that interview. If he is correct we are only at the start of this recession come depression. I hope something comes from the G20 summit, not just another talk fest...