Heaven forbid

[roddy1960]

G'day all...Autonomous Cars...Driving back to work from my lunch break this arvo I was listening to some interviewed "tech geek " on ABC Local radio .He was adamant that by 2030 ...less than a decade and a half from now we'll be hard pressed to find anything but pretty much driver less autonomous cars on our roads..This twenty something , thirty year old at a pinch geek reckons that the technology is advancing so fast that this is almost a certainty...Is this crazy or what ?.Recent Tesla autonomy testing is one thing given the recent incident causing a ruckus but what's the world coming to if this was even a remote possibility..Mining companies like Rio Tinto are going in this direction with their ore carrying locomotives/trains and remotely operated switcher locos are used already in some rail facilities but this is totally different circumstances to road going cars..Hypothetical it may currently be by people like this fella on radio but just imagine if it was to take place in part or as he clearly thinks..what would it really be like over time..Ponder this if you will..Cheers Rod..

[BLUEYBA]

with autonomous cars how is the government going to raise revenue. no one will be speeding or breaking the law. insurance companies will be affected as there will be fewer accidents as well

[woolleymammoth]

Originally Posted by BLUEYBA

with autonomous cars how is the government going to raise revenue. no one will be speeding or breaking the law. insurance companies will be affected as there will be fewer accidents as well

Originally Posted by roddy1960

G'day...About $45,000 U.S. apparently was the price in 2015 for the Commie or Chevvy SS..Cheers Rod..

Spot on, doesn't matter how good the new technology is, if it doesn't make big money for the .1%ers we will never see it.
Personally I don't want driverless cars anyway the whole reason I'm into cars is because I get to drive em

[buggo]

Originally Posted by BLUEYBA

with autonomous cars how is the government going to raise revenue. no one will be speeding or breaking the law. insurance companies will be affected as there will be fewer accidents as well

I think there's potential for insurance companies to be even more profitable when all cars are autonomous.

Using rough numbers, lets say accidents/events drop to 10% of current levels. Insurance companies can drop their rates to 20% of current levels.

As far as the consumer is concerned, they are getting a great deal paying $160 a year instead of the $800 they used to pay.
But the insurance company is only paying $32 / 20% in claims for each $160 policy, instead of $320 / 40% in claims for each of the old $800 policies.

This means that as far as percentages go, combined ratios will be way better than current numbers. Though in real dollars, this could be lower. It will be all about high volume for the insurers.

This could lead to the occurrence of a few real big guys in motor insurance dropping their rates to well below what it should be (say $80 instead of $160). This will cut out all the smaller players as they try to stay competitive, but don't have the financial backing to pay out claims at an overall loss for years in a row, forcing them to fold. Where do their customers go? To one of the big guys who can afford to take on these losses for years in a row.

Once most of the market is insured with the top 3 or 4 big players, rates will increase to that $160 mark. And with high volume, each % the rate goes up means big profit.

[Lachlan Oak]

Originally Posted by buggo

I think there's potential for insurance companies to be even more profitable when all cars are autonomous.

Using rough numbers, lets say accidents/events drop to 10% of current levels. Insurance companies can drop their rates to 20% of current levels.

As far as the consumer is concerned, they are getting a great deal paying $160 a year instead of the $800 they used to pay.
But the insurance company is only paying $32 / 20% in claims for each $160 policy, instead of $320 / 40% in claims for each of the old $800 policies.

This means that as far as percentages go, combined ratios will be way better than current numbers. Though in real dollars, this could be lower. It will be all about high volume for the insurers.



This could lead to the occurrence of a few real big guys in motor insurance dropping their rates to well below what it should be (say $80 instead of $160). This will cut out all the smaller players as they try to stay competitive, but don't have the financial backing to pay out claims at an overall loss for years in a row, forcing them to fold. Where do their customers go? To one of the big guys who can afford to take on these losses for years in a row.

Once most of the market is insured with the top 3 or 4 big players, rates will increase to that $160 mark. And with high volume, each % the rate goes up means big profit.

That's a very good point. I will be to old to worry about it. But not good for the next generation.

[Brazen]

While there are a lot of downsides, it does open up amazing levels of freedom and opportunity for the disabled and vision impaired. It also means many elderly people (and the population is ageing) will still be able to journey even when they physically can no longer drive.

[simon varley]

yup. it's coming sooner than we think.

[Bushbasher]

Autonomous cars will not be be seen outside of major metro and regional centres anytime soon. Apart from anything else, no rural and remote resident is going to let a piece of software ever decide when to pull over for a pit stop or a leg stretch or where to turn up a dirt road or avoid a pot hole or decide if a muddy road or flooded causeway is still passable etc., etc.

[Pilko FNQ]

.......does the computer decide run over the pedestrian who steps out into the street or swerve around them and have a head on with a motorbike coming the other way. Either way someone will be killed or injured and who will be sued. The "driver" on autopilot, the car manufacturer, or the government for allowing autonomous cars.

[Bushbasher]

Originally Posted by Pilko FNQ

.......does the computer decide run over the pedestrian who steps out into the street or swerve around them and have a head on with a motorbike coming the other way. Either way someone will be killed or injured and who will be sued. The "driver" on autopilot, the car manufacturer, or the government for allowing autonomous cars.

Here's a prediction, when it comes time to worry about that, you'll find every autonomous vehicle will be fitted with a pedestrian catcher on the front and airbags built into the front end and bonnet so soften the impact.

[wodahs]

Originally Posted by roddy1960

Mining companies like Rio Tinto are going in this direction with their ore carrying locomotives/trains and remotely operated switcher locos are used already in some rail facilities but this is totally different circumstances to road going cars..

um hate to say it but some of these mine sites also now have more than the trains some have westrac cat haul packs as well passing each other up and down haul roads
and well I also know a few farmers with automated systems (more than steer and throttle) in their seeders and harvesters for a few years now

[jpblue1000]

The automated car won't need to make that decision, it would have worked out what's going on or likely to happen and premptively dealt with it.
I think the biggest barrier to full autonomy is not technology, but the legal and social issues
JP

[malazn mafia]

Originally Posted by roddy1960

G'day all...Autonomous Cars...Driving back to work from my lunch break this arvo I was listening to some interviewed "tech geek " on ABC Local radio .He was adamant that by 2030 ...less than a decade and a half from now we'll be hard pressed to find anything but pretty much driver less autonomous cars on our roads..This twenty something , thirty year old at a pinch geek reckons that the technology is advancing so fast that this is almost a certainty...Is this crazy or what ?.Recent Tesla autonomy testing is one thing given the recent incident causing a ruckus but what's the world coming to if this was even a remote possibility..Mining companies like Rio Tinto are going in this direction with their ore carrying locomotives/trains and remotely operated switcher locos are used already in some rail facilities but this is totally different circumstances to road going cars..Hypothetical it may currently be by people like this fella on radio but just imagine if it was to take place in part or as he clearly thinks..what would it really be like over time..Ponder this if you will..Cheers Rod..

Maybe one day in the near future they will have Autonomous people and animals implanted with computers so they are no longer free to think or feel or question for themselves, much to the convenience of the powers that be..

[FPV6]

Originally Posted by malazn mafia

Maybe one day in the near future they will have Autonomous people and animals implanted with computers so they are no longer free to think or feel or question for themselves, much to the convenience of the powers that be..

Hahahahaha well we've seen what free thinking gets us over political correctness

[FPV6]

autonomous cars are coming if its here by the next 30 years ill be 72 not really giving a toss

[Lachlan Oak]

Originally Posted by FPV6

autonomous cars are coming if its here by the next 30 years ill be 72 not really giving a toss

Lol your right 👍 It will be upto our kids to get us from A to B. That's a scary thought 😅

[wodahs]

and autonomous pockimon live (or what ever it is) so people don't have to walk around like blind twits

[bmwe46]

Like any tech now days it will be evolution, and not revolution. ie it will be a slow transition. In Australia there are laws preventing auto-drive cars in that the driver must be in control of the car at all times.

It will eventually change though..

A computer will not throw the brakes on when it needs to change lanes (like half the idiots out there).. it will also merge well.

What it wont be able to do so well is look out for a block of wood on the road, or a motorbike flying up between the lanes. It may also take some programming to decide risk levels at an intersection based on the traffic load etc.

Historically, people have always overestimated rate of change of technology. HG Wells did fairly well but most people think it is going to change faster than it ever does.

[JC]

Originally Posted by bmwe46

Like any tech now days it will be evolution, and not revolution. ie it will be a slow transition. In Australia there are laws preventing auto-drive cars in that the driver must be in control of the car at all times.

It will eventually change though..

A computer will not throw the brakes on when it needs to change lanes (like half the idiots out there).. it will also merge well.

What it wont be able to do so well is look out for a block of wood on the road, or a motorbike flying up between the lanes. It may also take some programming to decide risk levels at an intersection based on the traffic load etc.

Historically, people have always overestimated rate of change of technology. HG Wells did fairly well but most people think it is going to change faster than it ever does.

Tesla already does this. I have been in one when on auto, and it wouldn't change lanes because the gap to the car in front and the one behind was too small - it slowed slightly and pulled in behind.

On adaptive cruise, it even read a roadworks speed sign and slowed from 90 to 60 (the new temp speed limit for the road works). Remarkable technology!

[Lachlan Oak]

Originally Posted by JC

Tesla already does this. I have been in one when on auto, and it wouldn't change lanes because the gap to the car in front and the one behind was too small - it slowed slightly and pulled in behind.

On adaptive cruise, it even read a roadworks speed sign and slowed from 90 to 60 (the new temp speed limit for the road works). Remarkable technology!

That's insane, I did meet a guy that just brought a new one. Um there not cheep!!$$$$$$$$ but on that he said they don't pay for any service. Mm I find that hard to believe? But I could be wrong

[bobthebilda]

People like to think autonomous vehicles wont take of anytime soon because there are so many things that cant be taken into account. ie will the car hit some one walking across the road or run into a power pole (killing the driver) to save the pedestrian. Simple matter is, everyone is pushing ahead with autonomous cars because they think (you dont need to know sometimes, you just need to think it), that there is money to be made from it, and it will be safer.

You also need to think outside the square, with fullyautonomous cars, car trips will be quicker - no one will be stopping at traffic lights as each car will know what the other is doing. Less travel time equals less cars on the road. Autonomous trucks will allow companies to do major freight movements at night = freeing up daytime traffic. No more drunk or speeding drivers. Etc etc

[bmwe46]

bob.. I agree.. traffic issues would be halved. .no question.

No more dumb-***** jumping on the freeway doing 60, crossing three lanes and then speeding up :-) Fantastic.

But we are still 100 years away from true AI.

Azimov covered all this in I, Robot. A human would have saved the child.. but a robot saved the mother as she was the most likely person to be able to save.

I computer driven car would never smash into a tree to avoid the possibility of crashing into a school bus. Or look for behaviour in a group of cars ahead on a freeway as they try to avoid a lounge that someone forgot to tie on.

If there were no humans to deal with.. the computers would do just fine.

I do agree it will get there. .just that it will take more time to be fully autonomous than we think.

[GO FURTHER]

I'd like to know how autonomous cars can handle some of the following;

1. An unmarked police car with flashing lights behind it wanting it to pull over?

2. How does the car know what the speed limit is on freeways that have variable overhead speed limits?

3. How does the car know where to park... Which are no standing zones, 15 minute limit or one hour parking spots?

4. How does it navigate new roads not yet on the latest GPS maps?

5. When it's running low on fuel (or needs a charge), does it automatically detour to a petrol or charging station to be able to complete the trip, and how does it know the station is open?

6. How does it know how to detour, change lanes or merge if a roadworks worker holds up a sign and waves his hands to detour ?

7. How does it know there's an oil spill up ahead and to take it easy around the corner?

8. Flood waters, potholes, debris on the road to avoid????

9. How does it know it has to stop at a mobile drug / alcohol testing station directed by police?

10. How would its many sensors and cameras work in heavy fog?

And so many unforeseen circumstances that only a human can detect?

[devilcv8]

Originally Posted by BAXRSIX

I'd like to know how autonomous cars can handle some of the following;

1. An unmarked police car with flashing lights behind it wanting it to pull over?

2. How does the car know what the speed limit is on freeways that have variable overhead speed limits?

3. How does the car know where to park... Which are no standing zones, 15 minute limit or one hour parking spots?

4. How does it navigate new roads not yet on the latest GPS maps?

5. When it's running low on fuel (or needs a charge), does it automatically detour to a petrol or charging station to be able to complete the trip, and how does it know the station is open?

6. How does it know how to detour, change lanes or merge if a roadworks worker holds up a sign and waves his hands to detour ?

7. How does it know there's an oil spill up ahead and to take it easy around the corner?

8. Flood waters, potholes, debris on the road to avoid????

9. How does it know it has to stop at a mobile drug / alcohol testing station directed by police?

10. How would its many sensors and cameras work in heavy fog?

And so many unforeseen circumstances that only a human can detect?

sensors or radio broadcast to autonomous cars for 1,2,3
cameras and radar for 4,5,6,7,8

for 9 the car signals the police that no human is in control which means no rbt or mdt is required

for 10, the car slows to a safe speed.


no matter what scenario you come up with, someone smarter than you or I will already have thought of it and built a response. It may not be the response you want, but it will be the safest response.

[OzJavelin]

Originally Posted by devilcv8

sensors or radio broadcast to autonomous cars for 1,2,3
cameras and radar for 4,5,6,7,8

for 9 the car signals the police that no human is in control which means no rbt or mdt is required

for 10, the car slows to a safe speed.


no matter what scenario you come up with, someone smarter than you or I will already have thought of it and built a response. It may not be the response you want, but it will be the safest response.

Yep .. autonomous cars will work best by networking .. sharing information.
If a car unexpectedly hits something on the road it will likely broadcast and others around it will take evasive action.

The system will never be infallible, but it will be more aware than most drivers are.

I've resisted the idea of autonomous cars, but I'm slowly turning around to them ... the interesting part will be how they will integrate with non-autonomous traffic? Will the law (which technically is driven from the combined social conscious) force non-autonomous cars off the road?

[mik]

Originally Posted by BAXRSIX

I'd like to know how autonomous cars can handle some of the following;

1. An unmarked police car with flashing lights behind it wanting it to pull over?

2. How does the car know what the speed limit is on freeways that have variable overhead speed limits?

3. How does the car know where to park... Which are no standing zones, 15 minute limit or one hour parking spots?

4. How does it navigate new roads not yet on the latest GPS maps?

5. When it's running low on fuel (or needs a charge), does it automatically detour to a petrol or charging station to be able to complete the trip, and how does it know the station is open?

6. How does it know how to detour, change lanes or merge if a roadworks worker holds up a sign and waves his hands to detour ?

7. How does it know there's an oil spill up ahead and to take it easy around the corner?

8. Flood waters, potholes, debris on the road to avoid????

9. How does it know it has to stop at a mobile drug / alcohol testing station directed by police?

10. How would its many sensors and cameras work in heavy fog?

And so many unforeseen circumstances that only a human can detect?

Too your question about fog , check out this video of thermal imaging ..........
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ct5flf0QgOI

All good questions .
i think they can make autonomous cars 99.9 % fool proof given enough computing power and sensors and time , but it all comes back to the mighty dollar .
humans dont have a good track record of spending unlimited funds on safety if it interferes with profit , some humans also have a tendency to overstate the capabilities of their auto drive cars .
i could be wrong ( but it is rare ) humor ...... imo they may need to do stuff to the road system to make it more suitable for autonomous cars(and humans too ! ) ,
but im thinking signs that can be easier to see for car sensors , maybe more signs , proper line marking as i mentioned in another post communicative sensors in the road and cars , and car to car .
You only have to go for a short drive around our little island continent and you see pretty quickly road marking and signs are not all they could be in many areas , good old melbourne for example some highways you might miss a speed sign due to looking at road traffic and not see another bloody sign for 2 k`s .......... Again your taxes at work !
For an example a main road near me had a bit tar work done on it a couple of hundred metres of fairly dangerous cambered 80 kph sweeper road in poor weather conditions ,
it took the local shire about six months before we saw any lines put back on the road ( your taxes at work ) .
Humans adapt to road conditions in various ways , computers will have to have the sensors and computing power in place to do better , because driving on the road is unpredictable ..... much like humans ..

[Sabantien]

Originally Posted by mik

Too your question about fog , check out this video of thermal imaging ..........
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ct5flf0QgOI

Already implemented in some cars.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oLnHcJAlEDM

Let's not forget self driving cars are already being tested driving on the road with human drivers, and virtually all accidents so far have been caused by human drivers.

[danzvtil]

Originally Posted by BAXRSIX

I'd like to know how autonomous cars can handle some of the following;

1. An unmarked police car with flashing lights behind it wanting it to pull over? An unmarked car will be transmitting to all the traffic approaching about its status, and the cars will act accordingly.

2. How does the car know what the speed limit is on freeways that have variable overhead speed limits? Variable limit data is broadcast in real time, cars will know if the limit has changed while between signs and change speed before reaching the next sign.

3. How does the car know where to park... Which are no standing zones, 15 minute limit or one hour parking spots?

4. How does it navigate new roads not yet on the latest GPS maps?

5. When it's running low on fuel (or needs a charge), does it automatically detour to a petrol or charging station to be able to complete the trip, and how does it know the station is open? Yes it will, and if google can tell me if my local fish and chip shop is open (and that 6pm Fridays are really busy) then you will find an open station/charger.

6. How does it know how to detour, change lanes or merge if a roadworks worker holds up a sign and waves his hands to detour ?

7. How does it know there's an oil spill up ahead and to take it easy around the corner?

8. Flood waters, potholes, debris on the road to avoid????

9. How does it know it has to stop at a mobile drug / alcohol testing station directed by police?

10. How would its many sensors and cameras work in heavy fog?

And so many unforeseen circumstances that only a human can detect?

The next step is ALL cars will be transmitting data to others even if not running autonomously.
Scenario 1- Autonomously driven car is approaching an intersection across which it has right of way. Approaching the intersection at 90 degrees a car driven by a human (transmitting data-speed/braking input/steering input) which has a stop sign. Skynet can see this happening, that the human driven car is not showing signs of steering or braking input. Autonomous car will stop before its passenger can realise whats going on.

Scenario 2-A car slows down on the free way for whatever reason, all the cars behind know this has occurred, a pile up will be avoided before it has happened.

Scenario 3-Driving in 3 lanes of solid traffic, a human driven car next to you now wants your lane but hasn't looked where they are going, YOUR car knows the millisecond the human driver inputs the steering control even before their wheels start turning. Evasive action or emergency control can take over the situation. This has all happened while you were reading the morning news.

Bring it on I say

.

[uniacidz]

Go down Parramatta Rd and the auto system will breakdown, fail and disintegrate





Sent via HTC Velocity + [HolicsROM v1.3] [SWEEP2WAKE]

[FalconXV]

The advancement of technology which frees us from work is part of evolution and only a bad thing because in a capitalist society, it causes people to lose their livelihood. If humans ever evolve beyond capitalism then it will just be a good thing.

That's a utopian scenario though, at the rate we're going, all the elite 1%ers who run the world will wipe out the rest of us and only breed with each other until the human gene pool shallows and devolves into something else entirely. Or maybe they're at the vanguard of evolution by virtue of being 1%ers. Oh yeah autonomous cars are mega.