Falcon Sales for 2012.... Predictions ?

[babyf6]

i have changed my prediction, i reckon that the falcon will seel around 25000 cars. The ecoboost will help it along.

[Joe5619]

It is sad to see EcoLpi sales not being what Ford need them to be.. Fools for leaving the market empty for 12 months. I guess the say "it is easy to keep customers than to get new ones" is true. Figures cross they get some new orders for these EcoLpi Falcon & the stock will be ready to go for a change..

[prydey]

Originally Posted by Joe5619

Fools for leaving the market empty for 12 months.

it was hardly intentional.

[jpd80]

I'll be interested to see what effect lower Falcon sales has on the likes of Fiesta, Focus and Mondeo.
This time last year, those vehicles stood tall and partially compensated the loss of Falcon/Ute/terry sales.
I wonder if that same pattern will happen again, Ford has been pushing Focus in the media and
perhaps it will continue that 1500 odd sales a month....

[GTBenny]

Has anyone seen or heard any TV or Radio advertising for the Ecolpi? Everyone I talk to who isn't a regular here hasn't even heard of it.

Benny

[EB#]

OK...... !!
Now we are half way through the year and the Falcon sales figures
come up thus far as follows:

Jan 931
Feb 1192
Mar 1275
Apr 1009
May 1008
Jun 1431
Total: 6846

Going on these figures, and given a scenario of similar monthly sales for the
rest of the year, we could expect a possible annual sales total of just 13,700 Falcons.
This is indeed a far cry from the 'not overly loved' AU Falcon that sold
53,534 units in 2001, and certainly a long way from the peak of Falcon
sales for the BA with 73,220 sold in 2003.

So, the debate continues as to the future of the Falcon in Australia, but with
these current 2012 figures I believe it is hard to see how manufacturing can continue.
When compared to a global model car such as the Mazda 3, Focus, Modeo
or the Hilux and their sales figures all over the world, the Falcon has but one
singular market, one location of manufacture and very low sales numbers.....

Can the development costs for a new model be justified ?
Do customers want to buy a 4 cylinder car for a 6 cylinder price ?
Is the missing Falcon wagon a key factor ?
Will the trend to smaller cars continue to grow?

Anyway, I don't necessarily mean to be pessimistic but rather just offering
a few comments as I see it. Maybe Falcon can stay, maybe not ? Who knows ?
The FG seems like a great car to me, but not many people want to buy one is all.
Maybe the trick is buy one now, or hang on to the one you have and enjoy it for years
and years to come !!

Last but not least, how is your guess on the final sales figure stacking up?
Feel free to post a new guess if you like, and I'll re-visit the thread come
January 2013 to announce the winner !!

[janddbone]

I will cut mine in half to11,000, sad.

[jpd80]

We keep forgetting that it's not just Falcon sales, it's Falcon sedan + Ute + Territory

Maybe with Territory increasing sales and now the dominant partner, Falcon's future is a little more secure..

And in that vein, I hope Ford begins pushing Territory a bit more, maybe a nice SR RWD for $36,990 drive away
to get a few more petrol I-6s out the door..

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by brett.r.johnstone

I will cut mine in half to11,000, sad.

I'll leave mine at 14,000

[XRtowcar]

That just Aussie numbers.
Don't forget to add the couple of dozen sold in Kiwi land.

[robbo/region15]

Like i said back in February,need to factor in down days @ Broady.

[b0son]

IMO, we'll see under 900/mth before the year is out... under 13000 for the year. I do however think Territory will have a pretty strong year.

Looks like Terri is now Ford's bread and butter.

[babyf6]

Changing my prediction - what was i thinking with 25000 units. i will make it now 13500 sold

[EB#]

The results are in !
The 2012 annual sales figure for the Falcon is 14,036.

In regards to the forum member estimates, here are the results:
(All estimates from the Feb 2012 bracket are considered, as there weren't many
revised estimates from the June 2012 part of the thread)

1st: 14,000 from 'BarraXR8'
2nd: 15,000 from 'MrSmith'
3rd: 13,000 from 'Homer'

Th updated historical figures table is....

Ford Falcon Sales History
2003 – 73,220
2004 – 65,384
2005 – 53,080
2006 – 42,390
2007 – 33,941
2008 – 31,936
2009 – 31,023
2010 – 29,516
2011 - 18,741
2012 - 14,036

It is interesting to note that the buying trends for large cars in Australia
have dramatically changed over the last few years, for a variety of reasons.
Personal choice, range of SUVs and sport trucks now available, fuel economy
and the 'growing' small car market are a few that come to mind.
It would certainly seem that the heady days of 2003 and 73K Falcon sales
road will not return.

A few notes of comparison from 10 years ago.....

2003
total car sales: 909,811
the highest seller, Commodore: 86,553 units or 9.5% of the market
top small car sales, Corrolla: 36,128

2012
total car sales: 1,112,032
the highest seller, Mazda 3: 44,128 units or 3.9% of the market
top large car sales, Commodore: 30,532

For those who may like to study the numbers a bit more, here are a couple
of links:
2003 summary
http://www.goauto.com.au/mellor/mell...256E140083C911
2012 summary
http://www.goauto.com.au/mellor/mell...257AE800144A1F
http://news.drive.com.au/drive/motor...104-2c83p.html

[Elks]

Originally Posted by EB92

The results are in !
The 2012 annual sales figure for the Falcon is 14,036.

In regards to the forum member estimates, here are the results:

Ford Falcon Sales History
2003 – 73,220
2004 – 65,384
2005 – 53,080
2006 – 42,390
2007 – 33,941
2008 – 31,936
2009 – 31,023
2010 – 29,516
2011 - 18,741
2012 - 14,036

A sobering number indeed, but if you add in Falcon Wagon or Territory as we know it. Which had sales of 14,646 which was hindered by production limitations (now fixed for 2013) that gives you 28,682 units off the falcon platform.

Still 1/2 of what was going on in 04 when Territory was introduced. But not far of the just over 30,000 units the all conquering commodore.

2014 update should include diesel ute, and XR8. It won't but it should.


my 2c.

[Rodge]

2003 – 73,220
2004 – 65,384
2005 – 53,080
2006 – 42,390
2007 – 33,941
2008 – 31,936
2009 – 31,023
2010 – 29,516
2011 - 18,741
2012 - 14,036

Doesn't matter how you slice and dice this and try and explain it away, that is a very disturbing and depressing trend.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by Rodge

Doesn't matter how you slice and dice this and try and explain it away, that is a very disturbing and depressing trend.

really? the market is simply more and more diluted and segmented with every passing year. 60+ makes and over 250 models exist in the australian market. anyone who thinks models are going to continue to sell at a consistent rate in a shrinking segment is not a realist.

i don't find it disturbing or depressing. i think ford have done well to arrest the slide. the media might make it look like sales are sliding as they compare year on year, but if you look at month to month this year, they have stabilised somewhat.

[zilo]

Anyone want to try and guess 2013?

I say....10800 for 2013

[Giant Cranium]

I'll say 9000 if they are lucky.

[stevz]

12,896

[bigwil]

13500 and if they bring back the XR8 minimum 13501

[Smoke Pursuit]

Market is definately more diluted... More and more options emerging on a daily basis.

The only thing keeping Falcon sales where they are is the likes of Hertz and other rental companies. Once they pull the pin it will be all over.

Interesting to note the big decline from 2010 - 2011.... Some of which was made up of wagon loss and LPG loss for a long period.

[Joe5619]

Originally Posted by DASH GT

The only thing keeping Falcon sales where they are is the likes of Hertz and other rental companies. Once they pull the pin it will be all over.

From what I understand Ford has alway pulled the pin on them, hence the drop in sales this year compared to last?

[Smoke Pursuit]

Originally Posted by Joe5619

From what I understand Ford has alway pulled the pin on them, hence the drop in sales this year compared to last?

Nope still supplying them heaps of XR6 and G6E.

[xr6turbo270kw]

Originally Posted by DASH GT

Nope still supplying them heaps of XR6 and G6E.

Nope ford pulled the pin on hertz as they can no longer supply them with falcons so hertz are replacing them with commodores as hertz never used commodores in the past.

[XR Martin]

Originally Posted by xr6turbo270kw

Nope ford pulled the pin on hertz as they can no longer supply them with falcons so hertz are replacing them with commodores as hertz never used commodores in the past.

Wrong.

Hertz are pulling the pin on Falcons as they are having trouble offloading them at the end of their life, and Ford wont give them a guaranteed buyback.
They have been running batches of Commodores for ages, just SV6 models. They also trialed a batch of Sportswagons and that failed after 6 months.
The have only been running XR6s and SV6s, and about 12 months ago they bumped them all to the 'Premium sedan' class (so they could cut down the fleet size)
The 'Full size sedan' class was taken over by the Camry.

[tranquilized]

Ignoring the badges, consider that in 2002 the top selling car had 9.5% market share, but in 2012 the top selling car only had a 3.9% share of a larger market. That fact alone tells a big part of the story.

[Giant Cranium]

Avis is full of falcons and g6's. plenty of ecoboost also. Same with thrifty